FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Sunday, October 31, 2010

WATCH, AND MINI-FACT CHECK: NRCC Ad Says AZ Paying Price For Rep. Kirkpatrick's Votes

The NRCC has been playing the following ad against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (Dem., CD1) in heavy rotation.  It mocks her comment, supposedly in the Congressional Record, that "progress has been made in bringing jobs to greater Arizona."  It counter-balances that with the number of unemployed in the state, and her stimulus bill vote.


Friday, October 29, 2010

VIEW: AZ Dems Try Different Tack To "Support" The Libertarian Candidate in CD5

We just passed on the Star's article about the mailer introducing some voters to the Libertarian candidate for Congress in CD8.  Now, we just stumbled upon this blog post from Freedoms Phoenix - a Libertarian site - showing that the Arizona Democratic Party is trying a different method in CD5, where Rep. Harry Mitchell (Dem.) is in a close battle with GOP nominee David Schweikert.

In CD5, the state party is sending out multiple mailers ATTACKING the Libertarian candidate, Nick Coons, for his very libertarian/conservative views.  Apparently, the thinking there is that linking Coons to anti-Obama positions will appeal to people who might otherwise vote for Schweikert.

Again, the Democrats clearly take responsibility for the two mailers.  The third mailer on the blog post - which attacks Schweikert and praises Coons - is more troubling since no group takes credit for mailing it out. 



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VIEW: Classic! AZ Dems (Openly) Send Out Mailer To Republicans Touting Libertarian Candidate In CD8

That is something out of the ordinary.  The Arizona Democratic Party sent out a mailer - presumably to Republicans and/or Independents - introducing them to Libertarian nominee Steve Stoltz, "The Real Conservative".  Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (Dem, CD8) and GOP nominee Jesse Kelly are locked in a tight battle.

They did not ask people to vote for him - at least not on the front side as shown by the Arizona Daily Star, and the mailer clearly identifies that it is coming from the Democrats.  If they had formed some fake group and hidden their support, that would be sleazy.

Here's the Star's article, and their J-peg of the front side of the mailer.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK: The Anti-Dial Mailer (LD20) That Spurred Massive (Sign) Counter-Attack; Where Is SEIU? For That Matter, Where Is Arizona List?

Yesterday, Arizona's Politics was the first to begin reporting on the massive (8' X 8', not 4x8 as mentioned yesterday) signs which GOP nominee
1) Initial Post, With Text of Signs
2) FACT CHECK Of Dial's Signs, Web Page
3) View the Mailer Being Fact Checked Here

Today, we Fact Check the (previously) mysterious mailer that touched off the sign firestorm.  As a bonus, we revisit yesterday's Fact Check of Dial's web page.

The headline of the mailer (under a picture of a woman supposedly reacting negatively to the headless man standing behind her chair) is "Jeff Dial was kicked out of his Republican group for 'harassment of women.'"  It also notes that it is "paid for by East Valley Education Council. Funding from Arizona List. 520-327-0520."

The flip side of the mailer notes that the vote was unanimous and that there was "news coverage".  It cites the group blog/website (mentioned in our 2nd post yesterday) "Political Mafioso" as its source.

Unfortunately for the East Valley Education Council ("EVEC")/Arizona List, that blog post does NOT cite "news coverage" nor "press reports" for its (thorough if not one-sided) discussion of Dial's activities.  It DOES cite "news coverage" for the arrest of Arizona GOP Executive Director Brett Mecum (who the blog poster claims is a roommate/co-conspirator of Dial's), and it IS a bit tricky to delineate where the "press report" ended and the blog post resumed.  However, it is easy to see that this lengthy discussion of the in-fighting and the alleged "hostile takeover" took place nowhere other than in this anonymous blog post.  (Sidenote: My post yesterday noted that the website was contributed to by several Republicans including Scott Bundgaard;  it did not indicate that Bundgaard had written the voluminous post.)

So, the raison d'etre for this mailer - the headline and half of the substance - is based solely on one anonymous enemy's wordy post.  Bad.  Very bad.

The third claim (#2 also came from "Ghost" at Political Mafioso) is that "Dial lied about his education."  It cites an Arizona Republic article from Aug. 21, 2004 that states that "he has not or never attained a degree". (from Dial's first campaign for the house seat).  Dial's response was to post a picture of his diploma and to say that the article was "retracted".  The picture shows that the diploma was dated Aug. 6, 2004.  the story and the diploma could have "crossed in the mail." The article is not found on the internet, so it may indeed have been removed. 

The mailer does not claim that he never received a degree, it claims that he "lied about his education" when he "told a reporter he graduated in spring 2004."  If that is true, he did lie if he did not receive it until August. 

Finally, the mailer states that Dial was "caught lying in his campaign".  It cites the Arizona Republic Fact Check that Arizona's Politics has also written about.  A portion of Dial's "issues" section of his website claims that "liberal Arizona legislators have recently offered reducing sentence times and prison stays for violent criminals just to help balance the state budget."  The Republic found it to be "false", and Arizona's Politics has left a number of messages for Mr. Dial asking him whether he plans to respond or remove the false information.  Follow-up posts have brought this to the public's attention.  (Most recent example)  Still, the lie was about one sentence from an otherwise decent "issues" section; to imply that the Republic gave Jeff Dial - as a person - "it's (sic) lowest possible rating for truthfulness" is less than truthful itself.

So, the main half of the mailer is pushing anonymous gossip about in-fighting as being fact.  If it had accurately sourced it instead of claiming to be using "news coverage" and "press reports", it might have passed.  Barely.  The second half is a bit misleading, but is not false.

Overall, this mailer gets a grade of "F".  The 2nd half is not enough to offset the headlining half.

Due to the length of this post, I have moved the portion discussing the origin of this mailer to a new post, and will update the Dial Fact Check on that post.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK: Illegal Immigration Urgent Alert - Calling Politicians' Statements "Facts" Doesn't Make 'Em So

Four days, four facts.  This e-mail from Ban Amnesty Now is SCREAMING for us to "STOP Illegals from Stealing the Election!" It cites four "facts":  one is exaggerating a Washington Post article about illegal immigrants campaigning door to door, another claims that "illegal voters" have been registered across the nation, and the other two are opinions expressed by politicians (AZ Gov. Brewer and KS Secy of State candidate Kobach). It accuses President Obama of fighting to disenfranchise U.S. citizens.

The entire e-mail is after the jump.  Here are the highlights.

Fact 1: "Thousands of illegal aliens have already organized and taken to the streets...." 

Well, there was an Associated Press reporter who cited one woman and said "The 42-year-old is one of dozens of volunteers - many of them illegal immigrants - canvassing neighborhoods in the Seattle area trying to get naturalized citizens to cast a ballot for candidates like Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who is in a neck-to-neck race with Republican Dino Rossi." (emphasis added)  I could find no evidence to swell that less than "dozens" into "thousands"; it may be B.A.N.'s opinion, but cannot be cited as fact without some evidence.

Facts 2 & 4: “The illegal registration of alien voters has become pervasive.” And, "The same pro-amnesty criminals working in states like Washington to turn out pro-amnesty voters have been working to register illegal voters all over the nation!"

The first quote is from Kris Kobach, identified as the attorney who helped write SB1070. No evidence, all opinion.  Not fact. 

The second cites rumors flying around the internet that "more than 65%" of voter registrations submitted by Mi Familia Vota y One Arizona were invalid and that many belonged to "non-citizens".  Arizona's conservative Secretary of State Ken Bennett himself labeled those as "rumors...without merit" and provided the real numbers.

Fact 3:  The U.S. and Mexico Presidents (Obama and Calderon) are not only conspiring to fight SB1070, but to keep the border insecure and to send illegal immigrants north to register and vote in U.S. elections.

The source for this "fact" is Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.  No evidence to back it up.  Opinion, not fact.

This "Ban Amnesty Now" screed/fundraiser gets a (low) "F" grade.  "F" for full of.........opinions, but not facts.  Read it in its entirety after the jump.


Thursday, October 28, 2010

VIEW: Anti-Jeff Dial Mailer That Touched Off Massive Counter-Attack

Earlier, we Fact Checked Jeff Dial's field of campaign signs accusing incumbent Rep. Rae Waters (Dem., LD20) of smearing him.  Dial is one of the GOP candidates for the two House seats.

We finally have obtained a copy of the mailer that sparked Dial's counter-attack.  (No thanks to Mr. Dial - who actually hung up on me* - or those who apparently mailed the initial attack; as the late Mr. Rogers would say, "Thanks, neighbor.")

It does fill in some of the question marks we had earlier, and we will post a subsequent Fact Check on the mailer.  (Some interesting questions there.)  See the mailer after the jump.

AS SEEN ON TV: Some New Ads Appear On Screen; Format of the Future? 15-second Attack Ad?

The Club For Growth is running ads frequently - on cable - against Rep. Harry Mitchell (Dem. CD5).  Gubernatorial nominees Jan Brewer (GOP) and Terry Goddard (Dem.) are both starting to advertise more heavily.  And, the apparently-illegal CFJF/DAGA ad attacking GOP AG nominee Tom Horne is still airing. 

Seen on TV - broadcast and cable - over past 24 hours:
--Hulburd vs. Quayle (frat house)
--NRCC vs. Kirkpatrick (resume) (2X)
--Tom Horne vs. Rotellini, 15-second attack (2x)
--Business Leaders for Arizona vs. Rotellini (3x)
--Mitchell vs. Schweikert (2x)
--Brewer
--McCain
--NRCC vs. Mitchell (debt clock) (2x)
--Schweikert vs. Mitchell (do they - Mitchell and Pelosi - know what they have done?)
--Horne
--Cherny vs. Ducey
--SuperPAC vs. 3 Dems.
--Goddard (3x)
--Club for Growth vs. Mitchell (2x)
--Schweikert, feat. McCain (2x)
--CFJF/DAGA vs. Horne

Please add the ads you have seen!



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY FOLLOW-UP: Horne Fails In Suit Against Natl Democratic Group; However, AG Goddard Must Now Decide What To Do With The Group That He Belongs To

The New Times has a complete update on the attack ads which Arizona's Politics has reported on extensively.  The ads attack GOP AG nominee Tom Horne.  The ads are apparently illegal because the group airing the ad - listed as the Committee for Justice and Fairness ("CFJF") - is not registered with Arizona to conduct an independent expenditure campaign in a statewide race - and has not filed notices of the expenditures.  Further, the CFJF is a front group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association, placing both current (Democratic) AG Terry Goddard and would-be AG Felecia Rotellini in difficult positions.

The alleged violations have now moved from the Secretary of State's Office to the Attorney General's Office.  Pursuant to Arizona law, the AG's office now has the discretion to send the CFJF/DAGA a notice to comply within 20 days.  Of course, the AG has a conflict-of-interest and should likely (immediately) transfer it to an independent prosecutor.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK: State Leg Candidate Blankets District With Signs Claiming Opponent Smearing Him

(Updated 10/29: Now that we have all seen the mysterious mailer that prompted this flurry of activity, we have updated this piece.  In addition, in response to a senatorial caller, we have further clarified that Scott Bundgaard did not write the blog post discussed herein, and that he only is one of the contributors to the group blog/website.  Please see our new Fact Check of the mailer itself, and check back for our report on the origin of the mailer.)

Previous post is here.  To recap: Jeff Dial, Republican candidate for a State House seat in LD20 (Southeast Valley), posted large (8' X 4') signs this week calling out Democratic incumbent Rep. Rae Waters for "dirty last minute smears".  Text:

"Rae Waters, why the dirty last minute smears against Dial? The attacks aren't true. Get the facts. Visit Ld20truth.com."
The website obviously provides more details, though even those are not sufficient to judge truth or falsity.



First, to Fact Check the sign as a stand-alone, as that is how most people will receive Dial's message.  The sign gives the message that Rae Waters is somehow smearing Dial, that the attacks are dirty and not true.  However, there is absolutely nothing to support the overwhelming impression that Waters has attacked Dial. 

Therefore, without even considering the dirtiness or the truth of the alleged smears, and because the signs are extremely misleading and not accurate, the Dial campaign receives an "F" for the signs.

Next, to Fact Check the web page (LD20truth.com).  It is an interesting task to try to Fact Check the responses from the Dial campaign, because it veiled what the alleged attacks actually were (likely, in order not to repeat them).  Piecing it together was a challenge, and Mr. Dial did not respond to our inquiry.  Fortunately, thanks to a neighbor, we were able to obtain the piece, posted here.

Here are a couple of the claims on the web page:
--Waters is behind in the polls.
--"She and her union supporters have resorted to last minute smears against State Representative candidate Jeff Dial." (emphasis added)

Although I personally received an automated phone survey on the race earlier this week, there has been no polling information available publicly.  There is nothing cited to back up the claim.

More troubling is the claim that Waters is co-responsible for the mailer(s) that prompted Dial's signs and web page.  On the signs - due to the limited space - it is almost understandable that it is not clear that Waters does not have anything to do with the independent expenditure mailer from the SEIU (and other unions?);  however, there is no such limitation - and no such excuse - on the web page.  Dial deliberately asserts that Waters has some responsibility for the mailers, although there is no support for that (and it seems highly unlikely, given Arizona campaign law).

Additionally, the mailer was "Paid for by East Valley Education Council. Funding from Arizona List."  A review of the EVEC and the Arizona List financial statements reveal (a) Arizona List provided the entire $20,000 contributed to EVEC; and (b) that the Arizona List only lists contributions from individuals.  Nowhere are SEIU's fingerprints (nor any other union's or group's) on the mailer! 

The difficult part to Fact Check is the "Get the Facts" portion of Dial's web page. Here is the text of the first portion:

SOURCE OF SMEAR 1?: An anonymous blog post on the Internet

FACT 1: Jeff Dial is the current chairman of Republican Professionals. (All claims
against him and his involvement with Republican Professionals are
completely false.)
Through the magic of Google, we were able to find the apparent blog post that the mailer apparently relies upon. It is a lengthy post from 2009 - on a so-called "group blog"/website called "Politico Mafioso" (it lists  four as contributors, including former Rep. Scott Bundgaard) - that appears to detail quite the infighting in Phoenix-area Republican circles.  It appears there was a split among "Republican Professionals" groups, that Dial and others may have kept control of a competing group, etc.  It also appears that part of the cause for the infighting and/or split were allegations against Dial by a number of women involved in one of the groups.

This reading of the blog post seems to be supported by the letters that Dial presents on the web page.  He presents a letter (dated 10/25/10) that promises legal action against those that libeled Dial in the mailers and says Dial is still involved with the Republican Professionals.  The 2nd letter is from a "Female President of... Chapter", and she notes that "he is extremely respectful toward women."

The next section addresses an apparent allegation (in the mailer) that Dial did not actually graduate from ASU:

                                        SOURCE OF SMEAR 2?: A retracted newspaper story
                    FACT 2: Jeff Dial Graduated from Arizona State University.
To assert that Mr. Dial did not graduate from Arizona State University is
deceitful.

Mr. Dial then displays a copy of his diploma from ASU.  The mailer does not assert that he did not graduate;  rather it asserts that he "lied about his education" when he allegedly told an Arizona Republic reporter that he had graduated in Spring, 2004.  He graduated in August, which is when the Republic article was run.

Arizona's Politics still has calls out to Dial, Arizona List and the SEIU.  It is possible that one or more of them may shed additional light on the allegations that are not apparent at this time.  Therefore, the grades on this page are still subject to review. 
Based upon the unsupported claims of polling data showing Waters behind (and, presumably, desperate), and the unsupported claims that Waters is (partly) responsible for the mailer(s), Dial must receive another* "F".

SUMMARY:  Two "F's" for Jeff Dial, one for the signs themselves, and one for the claims on the web page. 
*Ironically, the Arizona Republic found a portion of Dial's website to be "False".  Dial has failed to change that portion, and Arizona's Politics has repeatedly followed up.  The mailer does use the Republic's Fact Check (but not our follow-ups), and Dial does not address that on his responsive web page.








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SIGN, SIGN, EVERYWHERE A SIGN: Last-Minute Campaign Jujitsu Attempt In LD20 Race; I'll Smear You By Saying You Smeared Me

The State House race in LD20 (SE Valley) has shaped up to be one of the Republican's targets.  Thus, it is unsurprising that it has become nastier near the finish line. 

Within the past couple of days, GOP nominee Jeff Dial has blanketed the district with 8' X 4' signs claiming to be the victim of smears at the hands of his opponent.  Text:

"Rae Waters, why the dirty last minute smears against Dial? The attacks aren't true. Get the facts. Visit Ld20truth.com."
Naturally, this piqued my curiosity.  And, practically begged for an Arizona's Politics Fact Check.  That Fact Check is largely written;  however, I have decided to hold it just a little bit longer to obtain a copy of the mailer that has turned Dial into a victim (which - based upon Dial's accusers* - would be a turnabout), and to receive return phone calls from the various parties.  If you have a copy of the mailer attacking Dial, please e-mail info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com, or call 602-799-7025.


* Dial's accusers, according to Dial's characterizations and defenses on the special website.
Previous stories re: LD20:
--Fact Check Follow-Ups Re: Jeff Dial's Website: http://bit.ly/bMiYND
--Following Money... Re: Yuma County Republicans Mailers Target Waters (and others): http://bit.ly/9cqw8o

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

AS SEEN ON TV: Which Last-Minute Ads Have YOU Seen?

Well, we are now officially into the last week of (this portion of) the campaign.  I missed the 10-pm news (saw it at 11:30), but luckily for me, Letterman's show was peppered with negative ads, too.  So, here is my non-scientific-yet-helpful list; it gives us an idea of how the money is being spent (although our "Following Money In Arizona's Politics" posts hopefully give us a better idea of that) and what an average viewer might see.

--NRCC vs. Kirkpatrick, the town hall spot
--DCCC vs. Schweikert, the mismanagement spot
--Cherny vs. Ducey, the Cold Stone spot (previously Fact Checked here)
--NRCC vs Kirkpatrick, report card spot
--Hulburd vs. Quayle, frat house spot (shared here)
--SuperPAC for America, The AZ 3 spot
--DCCC vs. Gosar, Moral Compass spot (shared here)
--Mitchell vs. Schweikert, hybrid neg/post spot
--NRCC vs. Mitchell, national debt clock spot (shown twice)
--Rotellini vs. Horne fraud spot (shared here)

I would like to make this a group effort. Please post a synopsis of the ads you see on TV, hear on radio, or receive in the mail. The more details, the better. Links or scans are better still. And, since many of us shy away from commenting on blog posts, feel free to e-mail me (info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com) instead.


And, as many political campaigns have become skilled at "releasing" ads without ever intending to actually spend money on airing them, these lists can be helpful because Arizona's Politics is more interested in writing about ads that are actually seeing airtime on Arizona TV or radio.




We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

BEYOND HYPER-PARTISANSHIP: Republican State Sen. Carolyn Allen Endorses Penny Kotterman For State Schools Superintendent; Reminds GOP'ers That The Job Is To Lead PUBLIC Schools

One of the things that ArizonasPolitics.com intends to highlight during the last few weeks of the campaign is efforts to get beyond hyper-partisanship. We believe that most Arizonans are tired of every issue being framed in an Us vs. Them, Republican vs. Democrat, black vs. white partisan way.


Penny Kotterman, Democratic nominee for State Superintendent of Public Instruction released a strongly-worded endorsement from Republican outgoing Senator Carolyn Allen

Allen stated that Kotterman has "the skill set and on-the-ground experience teaching in classrooms in the Arizona public education system."  OK, nice words.  But, here is her quote about the Republican nominee, outgoing State Sen. John Huppenthal:  "Senator Huppenthal, during his time in office, has repeatedly demonstrated his intention to distribute our scarce tax dollars to the religious school system. This office these candidates are running to fill is the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Remember that when you mark your ballot." (bold and underline, Allen's)

The Kotterman campaign also noted that it has received other high-profile endorsements from Republicans:  former State Representatives Susan Gerard, Becky Jordan and Robbie Shaw, as well as Michael Racy of Racy Associates in Tucson, Tim Riester of Riester Public Affairs, and Republican activist Roselyn O'Connell.







The Kotterman campaign

http://bit.ly/cZtZS1

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WATCH: MoveOn.org Runs Six-Figure Ad En Espanol For Rep. Raul Grijalva

MoveOn.org, a liberal organization, spent big today to support Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva (CD7). The Spanish language ad cost $17,864.80 to produce, and $126,500.00 for the advertising time. (In addition, MoveOn.org reported spending $1,240.47 on staff time and materials.) http://www.youtube.com/user/karinmoveon#p/u/0/6mrvjcTvDKg The translation (as provided by MoveOn.org): "Arizona needs leaders we can trust. The son of a bracero, Raul Grijalva is working to create high-quality jobs in Arizona. Raul knows we must fix America's broken immigration system. And he's working hard to improve our schools. Raul is fighting for our future. On November 2nd, Vote Raul Grijalva for Congress." The translation looks right to my shaky Spanish. Not much to fact check here! We welcome your comments about this post. If you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK: AZ GOP Chair Tries To Tie Harry Mitchell To The Tracks, But Uses Faulty Rope And Comes Out The Villain

Apparently, Democrats hammering away at GOP nominee David Schweikert (CD5) has struck a nerve.  This afternoon, AZ GOP Chair Randy Pullen attempts to smear incumbent Rep. Harry Mitchell with real estate-related allegations.  Upon review, however, the reports he uses fall apart quickly.

Pullen's news release is headlined "All Aboard For Self-Interest."  The money quote from Pullen: "The reports coming out about Congressman Mitchell requesting millions for a Metro light rail study is especially troubling. If he has financially benefited from an insider information voters should hold him accountable. Evidently, when people say that the country is on the wrong track, they meant it literally and figuratively."

I had not heard of these "reports", so some investigation was necessary.  It turns out that it was written by (one or) two Republican operatives/researchers/journalists who posted their faulty analysis on RedState.com.  They titled it "Harry Mitchell Is the Poster Boy For Earmark Reform".  (Amazingly, it was picked up and re-posted verbatim in Schweikert's website's newsroom later that day.)

The substance that so excited Pullen is that Rep. Mitchell has requested $6.4 Million dollars for preliminary engineering for extension of Phoenix' light rail (hence all of the train puns from Pullen - and Arizona's Politics).  As RedSky explains, "Sounds great, except Mitchell’s company owns three homes in that study area."

However, the three small (824-1,188 sq.ft.), old (1945-1965) homes west of the ASU campus are NOT in the study area.*  They ARE close to the study area and would be within walking distance of a potential streetcar line in the ASU area; however, to even suggest that  the near-the-study-area houses would benefit from the transit extension is hard to imagine.  That neighborhood is extremely campus-centric and that would not change;  if anything, easier mass transit access to ASU from south Tempe and north Chandler would likely make it easier for Mitchell's future potential tenants to live farther away from campus.

The RedSky post concludes by claiming that there was no excuse for Mitchell not to sell the student homes when he went to Congress, and accuses him of "us(ing) the earmarking process to make some money on the side."

Bad enough, but Pullen pulled it farther into falsity and ludicrousness when he made the allegation (in the form of asking a question) that Mitchell "financially benefited from an (sic) insider information."

The GOP Chair gets a grade of "F" - for failure and falseness - for this feeble effort to counter the Democrats' drumbeat on Schweikert's real estate activities.





*Study area is bounded on the west by the railroad tracks; MCC Property Investments owns three properties on Roosevelt Street, which is west of the tracks.  By the way, Mitchell does not "run" MCC Property Investments, as alleged by RedSky.  And, property baron that he is, MCC only owns one other property in Maricopa County, and Mitchell personally owns only his Tempe home - which, by the way, IS in the study area.



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NO COMMENT: Arizona Governor Refuses To Answer Question On Radio - Did You Have A Biopsy?; Brewer Will Not Be Turned Into A Shell

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer was asked on live radio whether she had had a biopsy taken last month.  She refused to answer.

She wrapped up her interview on KJZZ's Here and Now program by saying that she fears being turned into "a shell" if layers of her private life are peeled away.

The audio of the approximately 17-minute interview will be posted on KJZZ's (91.5FM and around the state on translators) website later today, where it will join similar interviews with Democratic nominee Terry Goddard (last month) and Libertarian Barry Hess (today, immediately following Brewer).  Brewer gave long answers to several questions asked by host Steve Goldstein, who was only able to get one listener's question in before the interview ended.

That caller expressed dismay at how the governor and her advisors had handled the questions surrounding her health.  He asked her if she had had a biopsy and whether she was okay.  Brewer recapped her previous statements about feeling fine and said she would not run for governor if she was not feeling fine. Goldstein then asked her about the line between public and private information, and Brewer bemoaned the efforts to peel away private layers.  (She also did not address the caller's apparent reference to her advisor Chuck Coughlin's initial response raising rumors of Goddard's sexual orientation 20 years ago.)


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WATCH: Jon Hulburd's Ad Asking "Can We Afford Ben Quayle?"

Saw this ad on late night news last night.  Democratic nominee Jon Hulburd tries to paint Republican opponent as frat boy not ready for the House of Representatives.  It cites The Dirty, lack of record of voting in Arizona, "miscalculated the federal budget by $11 Trillion", and his lack of experience.

WATCH: Republican Ad Hammers Back At Rotellini

(Hat tip to the Yellow Sheet Report for posting this video.)

Last night, for the first time, we saw an independent expenditure ad from the Republicans, hammering back at AG candidate Felecia Rotellini.  (We have previously discussed the apparently-illegal independent expenditure ad from the Democratic Attorneys General Assoication.)

This new ad is paid for by the "Business Leaders For Arizona".  It identifies the Republican State Leadership Committee as its major funder.

The ad fast-switches between a picture of Rotellini and one of President Obama.  It hits her for opposing SB1070 and taking money from unions who supported a boycott of Arizona.  "She sold Arizona out," the announcer intones.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siPmUBjS7cI

AS SEEN ON TV: Slew of Campaign Ads Last Night, Most Smelled Like A Slough

In about one hour of watching some local news (Phoenix) and the beginning of Letterman (through the 1st segment with Charles Barkley), I got to see nine minutes of campaign ads. Here's my list:

--McCain: not worried about Glassman, a gentle ad
--DCCC vs. Gosar: twice
--NRCC vs. Kirkpatrick: thrice
--Hulburd vs. Quayle: the dirty
--DCCC vs. Schweikert: twice
--Mitchell vs. Schweikert: twice
--NRCC vs. Mitchell: twice (and at least they got rid of Mr. Magoo)
--Schweikert vs. Mitchell: twice
--COMMITTEE FOR JUSTICE AND FAIRNESS (please read coverage of this elsewhere on Arizona's Politics, New Times)
--Business Leaders of Arizona (funded by Republican Party) vs. Rotellini
--Horne
--Rotellini

PLEASE share which ads you are seeing.  Links appreciated.  Robocalls, mailers, radio ads also welcome.  We'll try to fact check and suss out the money issues as much as possible.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

WATCH: Apparently-Illegal Ad By "Committee for Justice and Fairness" Against Tom Horne

Here is the ad that we - here at Arizona's Politics, as well as at the Arizona Guardian and the Phoenix New Times - have been discussing since late last week.  It was airing last night on at least one Phoenix television program last night.  And, as of this a.m., neither the "Committee for Justice and Fairness" nor its parent organization, the Democratic Attorneys General Association, has filed the required registration and notification documents with the Arizona Secretary of State's office.

FACT CHECK (from New Times): The Democratic Attorneys General Association's anti-Tom Horne Ad

Thanks to the New Times for addressing the anti-Tom Horne ad being run by a front group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association.  Arizona's Politics started discussing that ad last week, and learned that the DAGA was using a front group called the "Committee for Justice and Fairness" to run the ad in violation of Arizona's election laws.  Neither DAGA nor CFJF have registered to expend any monies in Arizona elections, in violation.  Further, the ad does not present who the major contributors to CFJF are - another violation.

Last night, Stephen Lemons, of the New Times, has posted a piece presenting the ad, doing some good fact checking of it, and acquiring comments from both Horne and Rotellini.  (The New Times obviously has more clout than this tiny ol' blog. ;-) )



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

WATCH: DCCC Runs "Moral Compass" Ad Against Paul Gosar

Earlier in the campaign, Jon Hulburd was running an ad against Ben Quayle (CD3) alleging that his "moral compass" was broken.  It must be an effective theme, because the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) is now saying that Paul Gosar's "moral compass must be out of whack".  Gosar is trying to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.  (The ad was on the air following the Cardinals' game today.)

WATCH: Ben Quayle Ad currently Airing Tries To Pull Lever; Don't Vote For Hulburd Just Because Of His First Name

This Quayle for Congress ad ran has been running for at least several days, and I - appropriately - saw it again after the Cardinals' (lackluster) game. Like the Cardinals and the Wildcats, Ben Quayle is trying to help turn Arizona red again. He presents the election as a team sport: if you like Arizona's Republican Jon-John Senators, you need to vote for him. Because even though his opponent also has "Jon" as his first name, he is really on the Nancy Pelosi-Barack Obama team.



Saturday, October 23, 2010

WATCH: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Ad Running Attacking Jesse Kelly Re: Social Security

Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) began running the following ad this week, hammering GOP challenger Jesse Kelly for his earlier comments supporting privatizing Social Security:

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

WATCH: Felecia Rotellini Ad Hammering Tom Horne In AZ AG Race

A few days ago, we noted seeing an ad for Democratic AG candidate Felecia Rotellini, which also attacked her opponent Tom Horne.  Here it is:

WATCH: "Super PAC for America's" TV Ad Attacking "The Arizona Three" (Reps. Mitchell, Kirkpatrick, Giffords)

A few days ago, we reported on the "SuperPAC For America's" quarter-million dollar ad buy, lumping together Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell (CD5), Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) and Gabrielle Giffords (CD8).


WATCH: New 60 Plus Association Ad Lumping Together Reps. Giffords and Grijalva

The 60 Plus Association made another major ad buy in southern Arizona today, spending $130,000 to produce and run an ad urging a no vote on Democratic incumbent Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) and Raul Grijalva (CD7).

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

WATCH: Sierra Club's Well-Funded Ad For Gabrielle Giffords

On Friday, the Sierra Club filed with the FEC that it has made a $180,361.33 television ad buy supporting* Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (Dem., CD8).  Here is that ad, entitled "Smart":

*Significant because very few independent expenditure ads are FOR someone rather than going negative against the opponent. We welcome your comments about this post. If you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: NRCC Buys $750,000 Arizona Ad Time On Friday

Another big spending Friday for the national Republicans, as the NRCC ("National Republican Congressional Committee") sent three-quarters of a million dollars to Arizona to bolster their hopes of unseating Reps. Harry Mitchell (CD5) and Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1).  $303,078.68 to attack Mitchell, and $452,910.40 to attack Kirkpatrick (and positively mention challenger Paul Gosar).

Elsewhere, the Sierra Club bought a $180,361.33 TV ad supporting Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (Dem., CD8). (see accompanying post)

A group calling itself "Protecting America's Retirees" paid $30,000 ($29,559.67, to be exact) for a TV ad supporting Rep. Raul Grijalva (Dem., CD7).

Tucson's radio stations also sold some ad time yesterday.  "Defenders of Wildlife" spent $12,500.00 on a radio ad for Grijalva, and Citizenlink (formerly known as "Focus On the Family") bought time on KNST and KIIM, to the total tune of $6,711.21.

Several groups took to the mail on Friday:
1) Club For Growth spent $1,689.19 for Jesse Kelly (CD8) and $1,917.17 for David Schweikert (CD5).
2) America Votes dropped $14,633.21 into the mailbox favoring Grijalva.
3) "Women Vote!" spent $21,286.00 for mailer comparing Kirkpatrick and Gosar, and Giffords and Kelly.

Finally, "Blue America PAC" filed that they spent $2,000 ($1,998.00, to be exact) on "web ads" for Grijalva.





We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Arizona's Politics Not Fixing The News; Break Stories On Legal Violations Two Days In a Row; Your Help Appreciated

With as competitive a political news environment as we currently have in Arizona, it is difficult for a part-time, small-time reporter to find a niche - let alone break - decent-sized stories.

However, it appears that that is what we have done twice in the past two days.  And, I would like to thank and/or tip the hat to a few individuals. Arizona's Politics was not the first on the scene when the DCCC filed its complaint with the FEC on Wednesday.  But, we were the first to report on the McCain campaign's late-filed notice of its advertising on behalf of congressional challengers Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly; and, we were the first to point out the acknowledgment that a 24-hour notice was required and that it was past that 24-hour period.

Yesterday, we were the first to point out that there was something fishy about the television ad attacking Tom Horne.  Although I did not see it until after posting my report, Dennis Welch at the Arizona Guardian put out a story early this afternoon on it.  Also, a commenter at this site ("standright") provided a bit more information, and Arizona's Politics was able to push the story forward.  The good folks at the non-profit Center for Responsive Politics (aka OpenSecrets.org) helped locate the group's EIN.  Thanks to all.

We look forward to continuing to push these stories forward, to the extent we are able.  Any information that you think might be helpful - in these or other stories - would be appreciated.  You can e-mail or call, as posted at the top of this blog.

And, if you appreciate the volunteer effort that has been put into this blog, please spread the word.  Comments, tweets, e-mails, etc. can all help.  Thanks.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

If There's Justice & Fairness, There Will Also Be Irony; Democratic AGs' Group Could Be Hit Hard, Too

Earlier post regarding the apparently-illegal anti-Tom Horne ads being run by the Democratic Attorneys General Association, through their front group known as the Committee For Justice and Fairness ("CFJF")..

Soooo, if you are like me, you were thinking about what the penalty is for running an independent expenditure campaign and what the procedure is.  Well, the penalty and the irony are both rich.

A.R.S. Sec. 16-924 sets forth the procedures for dealing with apparent violations, and 16-912 sets forth the amount of the penalty for violating the independent expenditure restrictions.  The penalty would be "up to three times the cost of producing and distributing the literature or advertisement."  We do not yet know how much the DAGA/CFJF paid for the ad, although their budget (see previous post) and other experience indicates that a maximum penalty could easily run into six figures.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Anti-Tom Horne Ads In Apparent Violation Of AZ Laws

(((Update: The Rotellini campaign on Monday afternoon declined to comment further on this report.  However, the Phoenix New Times did get a (surprised) comment from her, posted the ad and discussed its substance.)))

The Democratic Attorney Generals Association is behind a television advertisement attacking Republican candidate for Attorney General Tom Horne.  Neither the Washington-based group nor the committee name given at the end of the commercial have registered with the Arizona Secretary of State, making the independent expenditures illegal under Arizona law.

The 30-second attack ad is running on at least one Phoenix-area television station (as of yesterday), and identifies the "Committee For Justice and Fairness" ("CFJF") as paying for the ad.  The CFJF has registered with the Internal Revenue Service as a 527 organization, and they apparently spent more than one million dollars in the first two weeks of October.

Arizona law requires a political committee to file with the Secretary of State (for statewide races) BEFORE spending any money.  It is also required to file its previous finance reports (filed elsewhere) if it uses money raised before filing its statement of organization in Arizona.  The Secretary of State's office confirmed to Arizona's Politics this afternoon that it has received no filings from either the CFJF or the Democratic Attorney Generals Association.

An internet search on Google for CFJF reveals little about its Arizona efforts, other than that it has filed something (unavailable) with the Kansas state government.  Its website focuses on the Kansas race and does not mention Arizona. 

Thursday, October 21, 2010

BREAKING: McCain Files With FEC For McClung, Kelly Ads; Spends More Supporting Schweikert, Too

Previous report noting conflicting responses from McCain camp AND that no FEC filing: http://bit.ly/bHCcKA

Moments ago, Friends of John McCain filed its required independent expenditure filing with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC"). The reports disclose their expenditures supporting GOP congressional challengers Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly, as well as a new ad supporting David Schweikert.

The ads formed the basis for a complaint filed with the FEC by the DCCC.  By law, independent expenditures are supposed to be "independent" - with no coordination between the spender and the candidates' committees.  The complaint calls it "utterly implausible" that there is not coordination going on between the candidates and their committees.

Here is the report on the McClung and Kelly ads: http://bit.ly/9MvS1a .  It indicates that they spent $11,872.00 producing each (separate) ad, and $80,000.00 buying media time for each.

Yesteday, the McCain committee paid $13,672.00 to produce an ad supporting Schweikert, and $64,000.00 for the media buy.  That report also shows that McCain spent $1,386.28 for "message phone calls" on behalf of McClung. ("My friends....")

Perhaps importantly, it is apparent that there is at least a violation in failing to TIMELY REPORT the McClung and Kelly ads.  As the McCain committee notes, it filed a "24-hour notice".  It reports the expenditures as taking place on Oct. 19, but did not electronically file the report - which is instantly available on the FEC's website - until this evening.


We welcome your comments about this post. If you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

WATCH: Controversial "McCain Ads" For McClung, Kelly

Sen. John McCain - apparently unconcerned about his own re-election prospects - is spending some of his large warchest to run ads supporting southern Arizona GOP congressional challengers Ruth McClung (CD7) and Jesse Kelly (CD8). These ads are the subject of a formal complaint filed with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC") by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. (Post to follow regarding disclosure issues. Here.)

McClung: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEDoaGQE8_I
Kelly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWYD1JuRYWw

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: McCain Campaign Claims It Filed Disclosures, None With The FEC

UPDATE: Moments ago, Friends of John McCain filed its required independent expenditure report with the FEC.  Details to come.


The "Friends of John McCain" ads featuring Sens. McCain and Kyl touting GOP congressional challengers Ruth McClung (CD7) and Jesse Kelly (CD8) have prompted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") to file a complaint with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC").

The complaint suggests that the ads violate campaign finance laws because they are either improper coordinated expenditures benefitting the challengers, or are unreported independent expenditures.

The McCain campaign has told reporters that the ads are neither.  To the Phoenix New Times, campaign spokesman Brian Rogers detailed how there was not coordination.  However, to the Washington Post, they indicate that the campaign did declare them as independent expenditures.  According to the Washington Post, the campaign released "documents showing that it reported the ads as "independent expenditures" to the Senate this week." As the Post next noted, the DCCC complaint states otherwise.

Arizona's Politics has not been able to find any evidence that "Friends of John McCain" reported anything to the FEC.  As readers of this blog know, Arizona's Politics follows the FEC's database of independent expenditures very closely.  Nothing was filed this week - or, in previous weeks.  Friends of John McCain did file its quarterly report last week.  It covers the period through September 30, 2010, so it is unlikely to include these new ads;  however, just to be safe, Arizona's Politics did search the 943-page report for "McClung" (and "Clung", just in case they inadvertently put in a space between the "Mc" and "Clung").  Nothing.

Likewise, Arizona's Politics could not find any evidence that the U.S. Senate has posted some report erroneously filed there.  Regardless, the McCain campaign no doubt knows that it is required to file the report with the FEC.




We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

WATCH: Controversial "McCain Ads" For McClung, Kelly

Sen. John McCain - apparently unconcerned about his own re-election prospects - is spending some of his large warchest to run ads supporting southern Arizona GOP congressional challengers Ruth McClung (CD7) and Jesse Kelly (CD8).  These ads are the subject of a formal complaint filed with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC") by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. (Post to follow regarding disclosure issues.)

AS SEEN ON TV: Team Ads the In Thing This A.M.

Teamwork seemed to be the theme this a.m.  I was at a gym this a.m. and actually got to see a bevy of political ads.  (I was very likely the only one there who was actually disappointed that the sound was down and that I could not hear the ominous voiceovers!)

A Ben Quayle ad came on, and he has now officially joined the Jon/John team.  His opponent, Jon Hulburd, on the other hand, got his picture matched up with the evil Nancy Pelosi and worst-Prez-ever Barack Obama.

Shortly after, the Superpac for America placed Democratic congressional incumbents Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords together on a team that is wrong for America.

Other ads airing on two local stations in the short time that I was burning calories were:
--Terry Goddard (two different ads, I believe, one a hybrid negative/positive, and one just positive)
--Tom Horne (negative)
--Felecia Rotellini (negative)
--Harry Mitchell and David Schweikert both had ads up
--the Committee against Prop. 109

Finally, I only caught the end of one ad, and I think the identifier said that it was paid for by the "Committee for Justice and Fairness." Unfortunately, I am unable to find any information about a committee here by that name; please let me know if you know who they are and/or what they were advertising.

I would like to make this a group effort. Please post a synopsis of the ads you see on TV, hear on radio, or receive in the mail. The more details, the better. Links or scans are better still.  And, since many of us shy away from commenting on blog posts, feel free to e-mail me (info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com) instead.


And, as many political campaigns have become skilled at "releasing" ads without ever intending to actually spend money on airing them. Arizona's Politics is more interested in publicizing ads that are actually seeing airtime on Arizona TV or radthose as we are in sharing and fact checking ads that are in fact getting (paid) airplay.







We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Breakfast In Arizona As GOP-philics Work the Team Aspect; Dems Hammer On McClung

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission.


Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted October 20, October 19, October 16, October 15 x3, October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28. In addition, on Saturday, we provided a "tote board" of the busy Friday.

The single biggest independent expenditure in Arizona congressional races yesterday was the first appearance of the Republican-philic (Dick Morris as pitcher) group "Superpac for America".  Their ad focuses on lumping together Democratic incumbents Harry Mitchell (CD5), Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) and Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) as part of a team that should be tossed from the game.  (I saw it this a.m., shortly after saw that Ben Quayle is also running a "team" ad in CD3 against Jon Hulburd; more on that in a separate post.)  Superpac spent $17,980.00 on production, then made two separate ad buys (presumably, Phoenix and Tucson and/or Flagstaff) totaling $251,403.00.

Democrats and a supportive group spent more money attacking Ruth McClung in her CD7 race against incumbent Rep. Raul Grijalva.  The DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) spent $32,430.00 more on ad time, and the America's Families First Action Fund put $51,996.74 into a radio ad.

The Republican-philic group the Susan B. Anthony List sent out mailers attacking Mitchell, Grijalva and Giffords. In order, spending $9,484.14, $2,933.09, and $9,172.08.

Elsewhere in Republican-affiliated spending, the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) put $16,545.00 more into its most recent ad attacking Mitchell.  Americans for Limited Government spent $29,602.18 on a mailer against Giffords, 60 Plus produced and mailed a piece against Grijalva for $6,606.32, and the NRA designed new pieces supporting Schweikert and Kelly at $642.86 each.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

WATCH: DCCC Ad Running Against Ruth McClung

Arizona's Politics reported yesterday on the TV ad buys by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") and Democrat-philic America's Families First ("AFFAF").  The response came a day  after Republican-philic Americans for Tax Reform began airing its quarter-million dollar spot against Rep. Raul Grijalva.

We have not yet located the AFFAF spot, but here is the DCCC commercial which has begun airing in the Tucson market. The ad attacks GOP challenger Ruth McClung for her so-called "radical ideas".  Fact Check to follow.

FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: Legislative Candidate Continues To Ignore Calls To Remove False Info From Website

One of the things that bothers me even as Fact Checking has - thankfully - become more prevalent over the past few years is when campaigns/candidates IGNORE the fact checkers publicly calling them out on their falsehoods or misrepresentations. If anything, it got worse in the last election cycle and the trend is showing signs of continuing.



So, Arizona's Politics is going to try to do its part to continue holding false-tellers' feet to the fire. We will try to follow-up on the most egregious misrepresentations to see if and how it has been remedied. If you have any suggestions for this series, please comment below or e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.


On September 4, the Arizona Republic did a "Fact Check" piece, finding that legislative candidate Jeff Dial (Repub., LD20) had posted FALSE information on his website. On September 15, Arizona's Politics did a "Fact Check Follow-Up," noting that even 11 days after the Republic's one-star, false rating, Mr. Dial had not corrected the false language (while praising him for the positive approach the rest of his issues statements took).  No response.

In the unlikely event that Mr. Dial did not learn of the Republic's verdict, Arizona's Politics left multiple voice and e-mail messages for him. We asked him to either respond or to let us know when the website was made accurate, so that we could inform our readers and the general public. Those messages have gone unanswered.  On September 27, another follow-up was posted and messages left.

We regretfully report that - as of 8:00a.m., Wed. October 20 - Mr. Dial has STILL not corrected the website.
However, until we hear from Mr. Dial (please e-mail/phone/Tweet/snail mail/whatever), we have to award him another "F" for "Failing to correct". This brings his report card to FOUR "F's" in a row.

AS SEEN ON TV: Ads running on Oct. 19

I would like to make this a group effort.  Please post a synopsis of the ads you see on TV, hear on radio, or receive in the mail.  The more details, the better.  Links or scans are better still.

Many political campaigns have become skilled at "releasing" ads without ever intending to actually spend money on airing them.  Arizona's Politics is not as interested in publicizing those as we are in sharing and fact checking ads that are in fact getting (paid) airplay.

I do not get to watch too much TV, but in a short time tonight, spanning some of Letterman and some of the repeat of the (Channel 5) news, I saw:

--DCCC ad against Schweikert
--NRCC ad against Kirkpatrick
--Harry Mitchell ad
--negative ad against Tom Horne, from Felecia Rotellini campaign
--ad against Prop. 109
--DCCC ad against Gosar

I will try to post those on Wednesday, and fact check as necessary. And, as time permits.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS ALERT!: They Can See Clearly Now - Half-Million Dollar Democrat Tuesday In Arizona; Ophthamologists See It Differently

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission.


Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted October 19, October 16, October 15 x3, October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28. In addition, on Saturday, we provided a "tote board" of the busy Friday.


Earlier today (Tuesday), we reported on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") - and a Democrat-philic group answering the Republicans' challenge in CD7.  This evening, the DCCC also made media buys of nearly a quarter-million dollars each in CD1 and CD5, where incumbent Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell are facing difficult campaigns.

A new ad was produced ($10,988.00) opposing GOP challenger Paul Gosar (CD1), and $236,770.69 in media time was purchased.  No production costs in CD5, but $237,365.57 of spots bought opposing David Schweikert.

Also late Tuesday, four other outside groups notified the Federal Election Commission ("FEC") that they had spent money to assist Arizona Republicans. (1) the American Academy of Ophthalmologists (spell that ten times quickly) paid $35,292.00 for a direct mail piece favoring Schweikert; (2) Republican-philic group Freedomworks planted $3,990.70 for yard signs for Ruth McClung (CD7); (3) The Republican-philic Susan B. Anthony List sent $10,988.85 for a mailer opposing Kirkpatrick; and (4) the National Rifle Association shelled out $1,481.53 to send out a McClung mailer.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

INTERSECTION OF MUSIC AND POLITICS: Calexico Playing For Democratic Volunteers In Tucson

This Sunday, internationally-known and Tucson-based alternative group Calexico (w/ Sergio Mendoza y la Orkesta) will play a concert at Hotel Congress (in Tucson) for folks who spend at least three hours campaigning for Democratic candidates.  Rep. Gabrielle Giffords - locked in a tight battle with GOP challenger Jesse Kelly - will speak to the group.

Here are more details.  Arizona's Politics does not generally "do" press releases, but Calexico is a great band; it caught my eye (ear?).




We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Dems Engage In Grijalva/McClung Race; Big Direct Mail Piece For Mitchell

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission.


Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted October 16, October 15 x3, October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.  In addition, on Saturday, we provided a "tote board" of the busy Friday


Last Friday, we saw the Republicans - through what we are calling Republican-philic groups - expand the congressional playing field into the heavily-Democratic CD7.  The "Americans for Tax Reform" ("ATR")spent $230,000 on the television ad focusing on Rep. Raul Grijalva's call to boycott Arizona over SB1070 and his vote to recess Congress last month.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") responded the next day with a $62,732.50 commercial expenditure against McClung.  Today, the Democrat-philic group "America's Families First Action Fund" (can we get a duck to quack "AFFAF"?) one-upped ATR with a $250,595.40 ad buy against GOP challenger Ruth McClung.

The Republicans mailed a bit more money to southern Arizona, too.  "Americans for Limited Government" dropped $22,499.22 to design/produce/print/mail a piece to oppose Grijalva.

AFFAF also spent in the six figures in the CD5 race, spending $101,246.00 on a direct mail piece opposing GOP challenger David Schweikert, against Rep. Harry Mitchell.

Another Republican-philic group has gone to the air on the hotly-contested CD1 race.  The "Trust In Small Business PAC" spent $2,489.00 producing a radio spot supporting challenger Paul Gosar against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, and $13,435.00 on radio airtime.

In smaller expenditure news, the "Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund" spent $207.63 on salary to support Grijalva, and NARAL Pro-Choice America spent a total of $63.00 renting lists favoring the Democrats (Jon Hulburd, Mitchell, Gabrielle Giffords) and opposing the Republicans (Ben Quayle, Schweikert, Jesse Kelly) in CD's 3, 5, and 8. 

Arizona's Politics will attempt to post ads - that are airing - from all races.  If you find one (that is not already up here), please send us the link.  (Same deal for radio, mailers, etc.)



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Yesterday's Tote Board: Republicans ALMOST hit $1 Million, Did Pitch a Shutout

We filed four money reports on our "Following Money In Arizona's Politics" series yesterday/today, but did not really take a moment to stop and total them up until just now.  Quite the stunning result.  Republicans and Republican-affiliated groups filed expenditures NEARLY spent $1 Million dollars in the Grand Canyon State yesterday.  (Unfortunately, about 1/2 of that COULD be coming from undisclosed corporate contributions.) Democrats and their affiliated groups spent ZERO during the same period.

Please supply your own drum roll as we go to the tote (total) board............... $991,640.84!!!

Brief recap (check out the links for more detail):
1) NRCC spent $248,698.21 against Kirkpatrick, more than $382,000 against Mitchell.
2) NRA spent $25,555.58 for Kelly, $3,035.25 for Schweikert.
3) ATR spent more than $230,000 attacking Grijalva.
4) CFRW spent more than $112,000 attacking Giffords.
5) ATR spent $40,709.00 attacking Kirkpatrick.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK: Ad Attacking Grijalva Focuses On Boycott, "Deciding Vote"

Yesterday, Arizona's Politics posted about the quarter-million dollar ad buy by the Republican-affiliated group "Americans for Tax Reform" opposing Rep. Raul Grijalva (Dem., CD7), which was significant in its effect of expanding the playing field for Republicans and forcing Democrats to spend money in districts previously thought of as safe.  You can watch the 30-second ad here.

The ad focuses on two attacks: Grijalva's earlier support of a boycott of Arizona because of the anti-immigration law signed by Governor Brewer, and Grijalva's casting the decisive vote in Congress' decision to adjourn last month without extending the "Bush tax cuts."

First, the ad correctly notes that Arizona is facing a 10% unemployment rate and that the rate is the highest in 27 years (since the early Reagan years, by the way, when it hit 11.6%). 

The ad also almost perfectly represents the Arizona Republic editorial of May 1, in which they scolded many Arizona political figures from both parties (in order, Brewer, Napolitano, McCain, Kyl, Hayworth, Gordon, Pearce, Grijalva, Thomas, and Arpaio) for failing Arizona.  The editorial did say it was "a call for destruction of his own state's economy is irresponsible and beneath contempt."

However, the ad crosses into misleading territory when it states that "instead of fighting for tax relief for our families, Grijalva cast the deciding vote to go home...." The text on the screen finishes the sentence, stating "...without finishing his job."

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: NRA Goes Postal, NRCC Sends Half-Million To Central and Northern AZ

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission.



Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted yesterday, October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.

Yesterday was a big day for Republicans and Republican-philic groups.  We previously discussed the quarter-million dollar ad buy targeting Rep. Raul Grijalva (Dem., CD7) and smaller efforts against Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (Dem., CD8) and Ann Kirkpatrick (Dem., CD1).  Later in the day, the NRA (National Rifle Association) and the NRCC ("National Republican Congressional Committee") joined in the fun/funding.

1) The NRCC made new ad buys against Rep. Harry Mitchell (CD5) and Rep. Kirkpatrick.  (I saw the slightly tweaked new anti-Mitchell ad airing last night.)  Two separate buys against Mitchell totaled $372,162.80, and one against Kirkpatrick cost $248,698.21.  In addition, the NRCC sent $11,500.00 to the Tarrance Group to conduct "survey research".

2) The NRA filed notice that it has printed and mailed "four color cards" and/or "postcards" supporting challengers David Schweikert (Repub., CD5) and Jesse Kelly (Repub., CD8).  The cost (four color cards, postcards, postage combined) was $3,035.25 for Schweikert and $25,555.58 for Kelly.


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Friday, October 15, 2010

BEYOND HYPER-PARTISANSHIP: Two Well-Known Republicans Form Committee Supporting Goddard For Governor

One of the things that ArizonasPolitics.com intends to highlight during the last few weeks of the campaign is efforts to get beyond hyper-partisanship. We believe that most Arizonans are tired of every issue being framed in an Us vs. Them, Republican vs. Democrat, black vs. white partisan way.


The Terry Goddard campaign announced the formation of "Republicans for Governor" committee this afternoon.  Statements from committee co-chairs Paul Charlton - former U.S. Attorney for Arizona - and Sam Campana - former mayor of Scottsdale - were included in the news release.  More GOP'ers are invited to climb aboard.

Charlton's quote: “While I was the US Attorney, I had a first hand look at Terry’s work as an Attorney General for a number of years. Terry is a smart and hard working prosecutor who successfully pursued drug cartels, and attacked illegal immigration by going after the ringleaders and their money. As a Republican, I want a Governor who will use that same good judgment and leadership to aggressively take on our State’s budget problems. I’ve always known Terry to do what is right as AG. I want to see him do the same as Governor.


Campana's quote: “I have been a Republican for a long time, but I also believe in choosing the best person for the job at hand. Jan Brewer has squandered her opportunity to take solid action. Terry Goddard has the intellect and the expertise to bring new investment to our state, encourage entrepreneurs to achieve success, and put the people of Arizona back to work.”


Here is the entire news release.





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WATCH: New Ad Against Rep. Raul Grijalva By Americans for Tax Reform

Earlier today, we posted about the quarter-million dollar ad buy by Republican-affiliated group Americans for Tax Reform expanding the Congressional campaign playing field into southern Arizona.  Here is the ad against incumbent Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva:








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FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Gary Bauer's GOP Group Runs Ad Vs. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission.


Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted earlier today, and on October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.


Unabashedly* Republican and pro-life group "Campaign For Working Families" filed today that they have spent $71,296.00 for an ad against Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (CD8).  The ad is not yet up on their (not-well-updated) website or YouTube channel.

The numbers: $3700 for production, $67,596 for the ad buy.

CWF is Chaired by former Republican presidential candidate Gary Bauer.  He has announced plans to spend up to $2 Million around the country helping Republicans, and said they are targeting Giffords, Reps. Harry Mitchell (CD5) and Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1).

* CWF home page uses tagline "Unapologetically Pro-Family, Pro-Life, and Pro-Growth," and ad featured on home page ends with "VOTE REPUBLICAN".


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FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS ALERT!: GOP-Group Expands Playing Field Into CD7; Big Ad Buy Opposing Rep. Grijalva

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission. Here are the details for this week's filings.



Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted earlier today, and on October 13, October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.

For the past couple of weeks, there has been much speculation about the southern Arizona race between incumbent Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung.  Republicans pushing internal polls saying the race is close and some pundits speculating that the GOP was playing mind games with the Democrats.  Hours ago, the "Americans for Tax Reform" filed a notice that they have dropped more than a quarter-million dollars into a TV campaign against Grijalva.

The ad's title: "Working". The budget for the ad: $10,335.54 for production, $219,848.46 for media time.

Americans for Tax Reform is closely affiliated with the Republican Party, and noted GOP political figure Grover Norquist founded it (in 1985) and serves as its President.








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FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Magnificent! Americans For Tax Reform Goes After Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick

As we get closer to November, the independent expenditures on behalf of or against Congressional candidates will continue to increase. Arizona's Politics will check in regularly on the reports that these groups must submit to the Federal Election Commission. Here are the details for this week's filings.

Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted on October 13, October 12October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.


The conservative group "Americans For Tax Reform" yesterday filed that it has spent more than $40,000 on a mailer opposing Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (Dem., CD1).  The title of the mailer gives a clue as to the subject: "Kirkpatrick the Spendificent".  (Not much comes up in Google under "spendificent", so maybe Sarah Palin came up with the idea.)

For the numbers junkies following our regular updates, the $40,709.00 breaks down like this: $250.00 for design, $12,772.14 for "print and production", $15,099.49 for postage, and $12,587.37 for "additional postage".

As always, Arizona's Politics requests that if you see a copy of this mailer, please forward a copy to us.  We would love to Fact Check this - and any ads or mailers.  (Plus, based on the title, I am expecting some cool graphics.)

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

WATCH: Goddard Challenges Brewer To Fire Coughlin Over Goddard-Is-Gay Rumor-Mongering

Gov. Jan Brewer commended herself for telling her political adviser Chuck Coughlin to "move on" and for her ability to stay "above the fray."  Opponent Terry Goddard is not settling for that and challenged Brewer to fire Coughlin, calling him a "despicable human being."

The exchange came during yesterday's editorial board meeting at the Arizona Star.  Video has been released, and here is a package (embedded below) airing on Channel 3 tonight.  Arizona's Politics previously posted about Coughlin's sleazy effort to inject 20-year old rumors about Goddard's sexual preference, and today's somewhat subtle e-mail from the Goddard campaign highlighting his wife and son.

A Star reporter asked Brewer if she condemned Coughlin's actions.  That is when she noted that she "thought that it was totally irrelevant and absolutely ridiculous and move on."  Later, she patted herself on the back: "I will commend myself by saying that I have been above the fray."

Goddard was not commending Brewer, however.  With Libertarian candidate Barry Hess sitting in between the Republican and the Democrat, Goddard said: "Chuck Coughlin is a despicable human being, and I think that anybody who has the kind of leadership style she just described to you (about herself) should not be tolerating somebody (like Coughlin) as her top person."

Later, Goddard spoke directly to Brewer: "Are you going to fire Chuck Coughlin?"  At the word "fire", Brewer quickly got up to leave.  Goddard repeated "Are you, Governor," and Brewer turned and said "Terry, your hands are not clean and you don't want to go there with me."

Goddard fired back, "Nobody working for me in my campaign - they would be gone in 30 seconds if they tried something like Chuck Coughlin just tried."  Brewer shook others' hands, made her way back toward Hess and Goddard, and said "Want to shake my hand?"  To which Goddard made one last remark "As a person, yes.  But, you've got to get rid of Chuck."

Methinks this issue is not going to go away as quickly as it previously seemed it would.

 


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Brewer's Veteran Political Consultant Coughlin Gets A Subtlety Lesson From Goddard Campaign

I did not get a chance yestereday to follow up on the oh-not-so-subtle attempt by Gov. Brewer political consultant Chuck Coughlin's to raise ancient Goddard-is-gay rumors, and his subsequent non-apology apology.  By the time I would have had a chance to post about the "apology", Montini, the New Times, and just about everyone else had already well-expressed my initial reaction.

But, I got a good belly laugh a few minutes ago when an e-mail* hit my inbox (info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com) from the Goddard campaign.  It is from Terry's wife, Monica, and she reference's their son.  She makes ZERO mention of the rumor-mongering, but it can be no accident that the message went out when it did, and with a nice family photo to boot!  Now, that's subtle!

Of course, Coughlin is not necessarily known for his subtlety and may not have wanted to try to be subtle this week.  And, of course, perhaps the Goddard campaign could pick up some lessons in NON-subtlety!

* Body of e-mail with subject line "A message from Monica Goddard":

Kevin and I are so proud of the work Terry has done as your Attorney General. Just this week, Terry announced that Arizona Attorney General's Office has joined a multi-state home foreclosure investigation with 49 other states who are now joining him in this effort. This is just one example of the commitment, leadership and energy I know Terry will bring to the Governor's office. We need your continued help to get the word out to friends who still might be undecided. Our website is a great place to get details on Terry's plans to get Arizona working again with his emergency job recovery plan, a plan to improve education, help women and children and protect our resources: www.terrygoddard.com


November 2nd will determine Arizona's future-your family's and mine. We deserve better than the partisan bickering and lack of vision that we have been handed by Jan Brewer. You can make a difference in this election. Tell 10 friends, pass this on, sign up some more friends on our web site and call your local Goddard for Governor office to join us any time for phone banks. Thank you. Our family is very grateful for your support.
-Monica Goddard
P.S. For those of you who have received your early ballot, don't forget to vote and mail it in!





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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: NRA Takes Aim, Dentists Go For Gold, 60 Plus Drops 40 In The Mail, and Dem Group Sends $80K Harry's Way

Our previous reports on Independent Expenditures in Arizona's Congressional campaigns were posted on October 12, October 7, October 4, September 30, and September 28.



Today is not even over at the FEC's (Federal Election Commission) filing site for independent expenditures, but it has already been full of fireworks for Arizona campaigns.  Four good-sized media buys (including mailers as "media") - let's break them down in order, from large to (relatively) small.

1) "America's Families First Action Fund" bought $80,000.00 of advertising time in the Phoenix market to oppose Republican David Schweikert in his campaign against incumbent Harry Mitchell in CD5.   Here's a bit more about this group, which indicates that it spent $60,000+ on this race previously.

2) The American Dental Association continues to spend heavily on behalf of its member, Paul Gosar DDS.  Republican Gosar is running in CD1 to defeat incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.  Today, the ADA spent $39,133.00 on a mail piece, and $37,975.90 on a radio ad.

3) The "National Rifle Association of America Political Victory Fund" drew a bead on the CD5 and CD8 races, spending $48,545.00 ($1000 for production) to air a radio ad in the Phoenix market in favor of Schweikert and $12,747.50 ($1000 for production) for radio time in Tucson supporting challenger Jesse Kelly against incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.

4)  The "60 Plus Association" is putting separate mailers out opposing the three Democratic incumbents in CD's 1, 5, and 8.  Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords were the same targets in the 60 Plus TV ads that were the subject of an earlier Arizona Politics' Fact Check.  The amounts being spent are $13,456.53, $12,261.38 and $15,271.81, respectively. (total: $40,989.72)

PLEASE!!! If you come across any of these advertisements/mailers/etc., please send a copy/link/whatever to Arizona's Politics.  If you think any claims need to be Fact Checked, call our attention to them.  E-mail address is info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.  Thanks.
 






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