FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

WATCH: New Ad With Mitt Romney Endorsing Jeff Flake For Arizona Senate Seat

(UPDATE, 8pm:  The Romney ad for Flake shown below is currently only available on the internet.  It is not yet airing on TV.)

Here is the new ad that the Flake campaign is going to be airing (probably along with the McCain/Ky spot), featuring GOP Presidential nominee Mitt Romney:



With outside groups' ads, we are able to see exactly how much they are spending to air them (which gives an indication of seriousness, etc.).  We have asked the Flake campaign for similar information.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

WATCH, AS SEEN ON TV: New, Old Ads Blur Together On Arizona TV's

("As Seen On TV" is a running series on Arizona's Politics focusing on which campaign ads are airing on Arizona at the moment. Here's a recent listing, if you think any of them warrant some additional checking, let me know!  (Also, remember to enter our contest for a gift card by logging the ads you see and hear, and the mailers you receive.)

Thanks to those readers who sent me their logs of the ads they have seen or heard.  This log is a compilation of all of the ad sightings logged and received within the past 24 hours.  The corresponding videos of the ads are below the Top 10. :

1. (4 sightings)  (NEW) The Congressional Leadership Fund has put big money (more than $500K) on an ad slamming Kyrsten Sinema for her "leech" comments. (CD9)

1. (4) Sinema's ad focusing on veterans' issues.

1.  (4) (NEW) Jeff Flake ad featuring Sens. McCain and Kyl bemoaning Richard Carmona's "lack of integrity" for airing archive video of same Senators praising Carmona when he had been nominated to be U.S. Surgeon General.

4.  (3) Majority PAC slamming Flake as a walking uranium time bomb.

4.  (3) (NEW) American Commitment running a positive ad for Flake.

4. (3) Joe Arpaio's ad bragging on how he helps educate juvenile offenders. (15 seconds, so it repeats twice in the 30 second block)

4.  (3) Now Or Never PAC's spot urging voters to not let Carmona in the door.
4. (3) NRCC's ad that voters in CD1 "deserve better" than Ann Kirkpatrick
9.  (2) NRCC's ad amplifying Sinema's "leeches" remark.
9.  (2) The NRSC's ad calling Carmona a "rubber stamp"
9.  (2)  Kirkpatrick's ad with cowboys blasting "Lobbyist Paton"
9.  (2)  AFSCME attacking Flake's "extremism".
9.  (2)  The ad (that does not verbally announce its sponsor at the end) using Sinema's "Prada socialist" comment.

One mention: DCCC on Parker, Carmona's McCain/Kyl ad, DSCC's new ad with a breast cancer survivor blasting Flake, Flake's "The Choice" spot, AFF's anti-Kirkpatrick spot, Club For Growth's "Wow" ad blasting Carmona, Penzone ad, Ava Arpaio spot.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

WATCH: American Future Fund's $500K Last Minute Ad Supporting Paton

We just noted that the Republican-philic SuperPAC American Future Fund had just filed that it had spent $500,000 to produce and air an ad in favor of GOP nominee Jonathan Paton and slamming Fmr. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the very competitive CD1.  Here is that ad, focusing on Kirkpatrick's alleged walking out of a Town Hall meeting during the heated summer of healthcare reform debates.  (It was not a town hall, but an event where she was meeting face-to-face with individual constituents.)



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Tricks And/Or Treats As Newcomers Engage In Senate, House Campaigns

The independent expenditure campaigns are starting to get in their last licks as Election Day gets scarily close. Here are the ones filed with the Federal Election Commission since last night's post:

--Minutes ago, the American Future Fund filed that it has doubled its investment in the CD1 race, spending $500,000 (total is $1,002,675.22) to produce and air a new ad supporting GOP nominee Jonathan Paton.

--The super Republican SuperPAC called the Congressional Leadership Fund threw down in a big way yesterday, plunking down $572,748.88 on producing and airing an ad slamming Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema (CD9) for her comments about stay-at-home women (complete with bleeps).  (They even spent $25,000 on an additional web-only video.

--The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee produced a new commercial on Monday, targeting Flake.  They spent $50,889.09 on producing it, then $473,000 airing it,  bringing their total to over $3.1 Million.

--The DCCC put more moolah into its efforts against Jonathan Paton (CD1)  and Vernon Parker (CD9). It spent $518,049.15 on its most recent ad against Paton (total to date is just shy of $2 Million).    The DCCC also produced a new ad against Parker ($3,000) and spent $700,025.84 for media time to air it.  Their total in that race is also over $1.9 Million.


--The National Rifle Association spent $3,186.69 yesterday on postcards  supporting Rep. Jeff Flake's campaign for the U.S. Senate.  They then spent $28,301.25 to mail them. ($1,750 for graphic design.)


--The League of Conservation Voters spent $41,000 on phone calls oppoing Flake.  Their total is nearing half-a-million.

--The Ending Spending Action Fund put together a new ad supporting Flake, spending $18,000 on production and $250,000 on airing it.  Their total is over half-a-million.

--Women Vote!, which is a Democrat-philic effort of Emily's List, had been concentrating on mailers supporting Ann Kirkpatrick in CD1.  Today, they branched out, spending $93,778.45 on a media buy (plus $6,186.33 on production) opposing Republican nominee Jonathan Paton in CD1.  They also entered the CD9 race, producing and airing a spot opposing Vernon Parker in CD9 for $100,000.

--The National Right to Life PAC spent about $8,690.69 on radio ads on the Premiere Radio Networks, supporting Flake, Paton, Parker, and Martha McSally (CD2).  It is not clear whether there are separate spots for each, or just one for the GOP slate.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

WATCH, AS SEEN ON TV: Senate Race Dominates Airwaves, Several New Spots

("As Seen On TV" is a running series on Arizona's Politics focusing on which campaign ads are airing on Arizona at the moment. Here's a recent listing, if you think any of them warrant some additional checking, let me know!  (Also, remember to enter our contest for a gift card by logging the ads you see and hear, and the mailers you receive.)

Thanks to those readers who sent me their logs of the ads they have seen or heard.  Mary P., James S., D.D., and two others have multiple entries in the gift card drawing.

This log is a compilation of all of the ad sightings logged and received within the past 36 hours.  The corresponding videos of the ads are below the Top 10.  (Notably absent is the Flake spot featuring Sens. McCain and Kyl taking umbrage at Carmona using their decade-old praises.):

1.  (11 sightings) Majority PAC's ad slamming Senatorial nominee Rep. Jeff Flake's uranium mining support.
2.  (10) The DSCC's spot attacking Flake on a variety of fronts.
3.  (8) AFSCME ad against Flake
3.  (8) Now or Never SuperPAC's ad attacking Democratic Senatorial nominee Richard Carmona on a variety of fronts.
5.  (7) The NRCC spot attacking former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (running for CD1). (You deserve better...)
6.  (6)  No On 204, featuring State Treasurer Doug Ducey.
7.  (4) Newcomer American Commitment's ad slamming Carmona.
7.  (4)  Kirkpatrick's spot with cowboys ripping "Lobbyist Paton"
9.  (3)  DCCC's oldie-but-goodiez(?) equating Vernon Parker (running for CD9) with the Tea Party.
9.  (3)  The Club For Growth's spot asking us how well we know Carmona.
9.  (3)  NRCC calls Kirkpatrick "shameful".
9.  (3)  NRSC's oldie-but-goodie(?) labeling Carmona as a "rubber stamp"
Honorable mention (1 or 2 sightings): Sinema ad, No On 121, Arpaio with kids, Ava Arpaio, Carmona's spot with McCain and Kyl, an ad with Sinema's "Prada socialist" remark, an ad teaming Flake with McCain/Kyl/Romney (which cleverly substitutes "labor" for "Harry Reid")

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We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Monday, October 29, 2012

SENATORIAL SHOWDOWN NEARING O.K. CORRAL LEVELS: Fmr. Sen. DeConcini Joins AZ Battle, Raises Kyl's "Not Intended To Be A Factual Statement" Gaffe

UPDATE, 4:39pm: A spokesperson for the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) Tweeted that the McCain-Kyl salvo (below the jump) was a "hostage video".  Given that McCain was a POW in Vietnam, it was a poor choice of words.  The spokesperson has since apologized. (from Weekly Standard)

The Gunfight at the O.K. Corral  Arizona Senatorial Showdown picked up a new gunslinger today, when former Arizona Senator Dennis DeConcini (the last Democrat from AZ to serve in the Senate) popped up from behind (under?) a rock.  He fired at exiting Sen. Jon Kyl (who took DeConcini's seat), using Kyl's "not intended to be a factual statement" comment from 2011 to knock down Kyl's current shots at Democratic nominee.  A recap of the past several days:

Democratic nominee Richard Carmona used the praise heaped on him by Arizona's Senators Kyl and John McCain when President Bush had nominated him for U.S. Surgeon General in an ad.  Kyl and McCain - who both support GOP Rep. Jeff Flake (CD6) to be Kyl's replacement - were outraged and said Carmona had lost all credibility.  Kyl shot back by saying that when he had recruited Carmona to run as a Republican for retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe's office, Carmona had been overly concerned about whether the job included a car and a house in D.C.  Today, Carmona fired back, producing a praising letter from Kyl to Carmona earlier, when Kyl had apparently recruited Carmona to run for Governor against then-Gov-now-DHS-Secretary Janet Napolitano.

DeConcini - through the Carmona operation and the Politico website - publicized the letter, and said that  Kyl's comments to conserative blogs (which found their way quickly into Arizona media) were "a factual statement."  The comment plays on Kyl's imbroglio last year when his spokesman said Kyl's erroneous comments about Planned Parenthood "were not intended to be a factual statement".

The famous Gunfight at the O.K. Corral took place in Tombstone in 1881 and involved several participants on either side.


Following the jumps are Carmona's initial ad, the Kyl-McCain responsive ad, and DeConcini's comments.

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Flooding Of Arizona Airwaves Intensifies, Expected To Remain In Place Several More Days

Too many things to do, too little time.  Too many Independent Expenditures flowing in Arizona, not enough time to investigate them as we'd like.  Here's a listing, if you think any of them warrant some additional checking, let me know!  (Also, remember to enter our contest for a gift card by logging the ads you see and hear, and the mailers you receive.)

--Freedomworks for America, a Tea Party organization that has been on the ground in AZ for Flake during the past several weeks is inches away from breaking the $1 Million barrier.  It spent $76,548 for a mailer (copy needed) today, bringing its total to $982,911.24.

--The NRA continues to give attention to Arizona's tight races, today spending more than $60,000 ($60,807.72) for online ads supporting Rep. Jeff Flake's Senatorial bid.

--The League of Conservation Voters gave a major boost in its support to Richard Carmona, Democratic nominee in the Senatorial battle, funneling $105,000 to Terra Strategies - a consulting firm based in Iowa.  This brings their pro-Carmona spending to more than $677,000.

--SuperPAC American Commitment spent $100,000 today on TV and radio advertising to hammer Carmona.  The Center for Responsive Politics lists them as focused on what it sees as President Obama's anti-coal policies.  They have now spent $1.4 Million on this race.  (On Saturday, American Commitment filed that it had spent $50,000 on social media advertising.

--The NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) has put another $266,247.13 into media hammering former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in CD1.  Their total outlay on this race is millimeters shy of $2.5 Million.

--The DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) threw a few more bucks in the pot opposing Republicans Martha McSally (CD2) and Vernon Parker (CD9), spending $108,756.79 and $9,822.72 for media, respectively.  (Totals are approximately $275,000 and $1.2 Million.)

--Senate Conservatives Fund spent another $25,571.03 to support Flake online.  Their total is now about $143,000; it is the SuperPAC created by South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint.

--Locally-grown SuperPAC Arizonans For Jobs spent $40,000 for phone-calling in favor of Flake.  They have now spent more than $100,000 on the race.

--Conservative superpower Club For Growth is spending big on online advertising for Flake, plunking down $152,747.  They are now over $1.8 Million into this race.

--The League of Conservation Voters made a $400,000 TV ad buy attacking Flake on his positions and background on uranium mining.

--On Saturday, the NRCC filed its Friday expenditures on the three competitive Congressional races in Arizona:  $114,295.75 (total, $537,444.75) opposing Rep. Ron Barber (CD8-running-for-CD2), $180,046.13 (total, $1.4 Million) opposing Kyrsten Sinema (CD9), and $565.008.29 (total, $2.2 Million) opposing Kirkpatrick.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Friday, October 26, 2012

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Just Let Your Money Flow; NRSC and DSCC Hit $6 Million Mark On Flake-Carmona Desert Duel

Too many things to do, too little time.  Too many Independent Expenditures flowing in Arizona, not enough time to investigate them as we'd like.  Here's a listing, if you think any of them warrant some additional checking, let me know!  (Also, remember to enter our contest for a gift card by logging the ads you see and hear, and the mailers you receive.)

--National Rifle Association has been drawing a bead on Arizona lately.  Today, they filed that they spent $5,000 ($5,080.45) on phone calls for Rep. Jeff Flake's Senate campaign.  (First NRA expenditure for Flake.)  They (actually, a different NRA entity) also sent out postcards to support Martha McSally (CD2) and Vernon Parker (CD9) - about $1,700 each.  All three are Republicans.

--Club For Growth dropped more than $300,000 to increase its TV advertising in favor of Flake and against Richard Carmona.  That brings their Flake total to a staggering $1.65 million, and their close ties have been discussed here before.

--The National Republican Senatorial Committee ("NRSC") put another $1.4 million into its advertising effort against Carmona.  This brings their total on the race to $3.4 Million.

--The NRSC's counterpart, the Democratic Senatoria Campaign Committee ("DSCC") plunked down another $100,000 on advertising, bringing its total in the race to nearly $2.6 Million.

--Making their 1st appearance in Arizona, the Ending Spending Action Fund - which has been active in the presidential race - spent $250,000 in advertising time today (and another $13,000 producing the spot).  They are opposing Carmona in the Senatorial race.

(We'll try to get to more of these later.)


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

WIN GIFTCARD FOR DOING WHAT YOU CAN'T AVOID, ANYWAY: Campaign Commercials, Mailers

ArizonasPolitics.com  NEEDS your help to keep track of all of those nasty campaign postcards (etc) that keep flooding your mailbox! We also would like to know which of those 30-second ads you're seeing on TV or hearing on the radio. SOOOOO, to get your help, we are holding a drawing for a $20 Gift Card for iTunes or Amazon to get your help!


5 entries: Scan both sides (or, all pages) of the postcard/mailer. Black out your name/address, but leave the city/Zip. Save it in *.jpg, *.png, or *gif formats. E-mail it to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com, with a subject line of "CAMPAIGN MAILER". Include your name (no last names will be used in the blog), e-mail address, and who you will vote for for President, U.S. Senate (Arizona), and Congress.
5 bonus entries: If you are the first to e-mail that postcard/mailer and it is used in the blog.
2 bonus entries: In the body of your e-mail, identify any portions of the mailer that you believe are false or misleading (and explain why).
3 entries: Keep a log of all political ads you see or hear during a 24 hour period. Necessary information should be in this order: (1) date/time/station (2) name of person/group responsible for ad (3) who/what the ad was for or against (4) any info that identifies the ad from all of the other nasties running. For 1 bonus entry, provide a link to where the ad can be found on YouTube (or, elsewhere). Can send ad log once per day.
1 entry: No purchase or e-mail with postcard or ad log is necessary to enter or win. Just e-mail your name, e-mail address and who you will vote for for President, U.S. Senate (Arizona), and Congress to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.



Deadline to enter is 7:00pm (Arizona Time), Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Drawing will be held on Tuesday, November 13, and will be announced on ArizonasPolitics.com. Winner will also be notified by e-mail. Arizona'sPolitics.com reserves the right to disqualify any entry(ies) it deems to be inaccurate, or for any other reason.

Thank you very much for helping improve our news coverage of the election. 



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

BREAKING, FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Payday Loan Giant Raises Money For Governor's JanPAC, Mailer Supporting Jonathan Paton

Last night, Arizona's Politics reported on the new mailers being sent out by Governor Jan Brewer's SuperPAC, "Jan PAC", supporting Jonathan Paton in CD1 and Martha McSally in CD2.  Six weeks earlier, one of the nation's leading payday lending companies helped underwrite a Dallas fundraiser for Governor Brewer and her eponymously-named PAC.  The fundraiser raised exactly $35,000.00; the mailer in the Paton/Kirkpatrick race cost $35,567.15.

Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and Democratic groups have spent mightily to pin former state Senator Paton with the nickname "Payday Paton", because of his previous lobbying for payday lenders and for a ballot proposition (Prop. 200 in 2008) that would have maintained legalization of payday lending (the laws were sunsetting).

In the Jan PAC quarterly filing with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC"), the $2,500 contribution from "Cash America International" jumps out (page 8). Upon further inspection, it turns out that the lender - one of the top 5 payday lenders in the country - actually made an in-kind contribution, paying for food for the fundraiser (page 39).

They, along with Ernst & Young, EuroCopter, and Texas State Senator (and big payday lending proponent and recipient of campaign contributions from the industry) John Carona, underwrote the September 7 fundraiser (at an expense of 9,073.75).  The total of contributions raised from the Dallas area made on or about September 7 total to $35,000.00.

Carona hosted the fundraiser along with billionaire Ross Perot, Jr.  Governor Brewer had a public event the next day in Dallas.

Cash America International obviously does not have any payday lending outlets in Arizona, but does have a number of "Cash America Super Pawn" and "Mr. Payroll Check Cashing" locations around the state.  They spend heavily on political contributions and lobbying at both the federal and state levels, and include both Republicans and Democrats in their plans.

Previous reporting on Jan PAC's contributions rightly focused on the enormous ($110,000) contribution from Copart, and upon contributions from other companies with possible business interests in supporting the Governor's funds.  The September 7 Dallas fundraiser became more significant once Brewer decided to spend funds supporting Republican nominee Jonathan Paton (attacking Kirkpatrick); Paton's ties to payday lenders and the earlier campaign to prevent a ban of payday lending in Arizona have been repeatedly pushed by Democrats.

There is no evidence that Cash America International's (or John Perona's) fundraising support from Jan PAC came with an understanding that Brewer would come to Paton's defense.  However, it is noteworthy, especially since the amount raised is very close to the amount spent on the pro-Paton/anti-Kirkpatrick mailer.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

WATCH: Libertarian Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson: Don't Believe In Me, Waste Your Vote On Me!

I am all for third party (or fourth party, or...) candidates, and I have no problem casting a vote for one if our views align, if he or she is serious and/or if he or she is the best person for the office.  That has happened in the past.  Indisputably, our two-party system has serious flaws in it.

However, this is not the year for the third party candidate.  Mike Stauffer has not made the case in his independent bid for Maricopa County Sheriff, Doug Quelland is not the answer in his state Senate race, and now Gary Johnson, Libertarian nominee for President, has shot himself in the foot.

At a debate broadcast on C-Span last night with several minor party candidates, Johnson made the strangest "vote for me" closing pitch.  Watch it below, then I'll print the transcribed quote, just so you can make sure he really said what you thought he said



“Wasting your vote is voting for somebody that you don’t believe in.  That’s wasting your vote. I’m asking everybody here, I’m asking everybody watching this nationwide to waste your vote on me.”

When I read that quote, I just had to track down the video, to make sure it was not stripped out of context, or to see if he was grinning when he said it.  Unfortunately, it was without irony, and he did not seem to notice that he just suggested that voters not believe in him, and THEN to vote for him. (Sure, I know what he meant by the first sentence.  But, he should NOT have then tried to equate a vote for Johnson with a wasted vote.)

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Governor's SuperPAC Sends Out Mailers For McSally, Paton

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer has used her SuperPAC to send out mailers supporting Republican Congressional candidate Martha McSally (CD2) and opposing Democratic candidate Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1).  This comes less than two weeks after JanPAC made its first campaign independent expenditure against Kyrsten Sinema (CD9).

Her filing with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC") late today indicates that she spent $35,567.15 on the mailer against Kirkpatrick and $29,651.01 for McSally.



(If you receive a copy of this - or, other election mailers - please forward a copy to Arizona's Politics at the e-mail address listed below.)




We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Monday, October 22, 2012

WATCH: Jeff Flake "Schools" Obama, Democrats; Celebrates 1st Grandchild, Hits On U.S. Regulations ""Locking Up Prime Mining Lands In Northern Arizona"

The Republicans chose Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake to deliver this week's national GOP Response to President Obama's weekly address, no doubt because he is locked in a key battle with Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

Flake used "now that school's back in session" as the theme for his attack on Obama and the Democrats.  That gave him the opportunity to give a shout out to the just-born first grandchild for him and his wife, Cheryl, and to bemoan the amount of government debt already saddling the newborn Aidan Jeff Flake.

However, perhaps most notable (especially juxtaposed next to the well-worn DSCC ad (below the jump) placing Rep. Flake's face on Arizona canyons), Flake cited the Adminstration's "regulatory overreaches" as a reason for our economic woes ("it is no wonder that the economy is struggling").

His number one example is that the Obama Administration is "locking up prime mining areas in Northern Arizona from responsible mining".  That direct rebuttal of the DSCC's attack (and the DSCC ad) will be the subject of an upcoming Fact Check.

In the meantime, congratulations to the Flakes on the birth of their first grandchild - although I doubt that the Congressman will spend much time with the baby (and he is too young to bring out on the trail) during the next two weeks.



Tuesday, October 16, 2012

WATCH: Natl Republicans Testing Attack On Carmona's Votes While On AZ Board of Medical Examiners

The National Republican Senatorial Committee ("NRSC") is apparently test-driving a new line of attack on Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.  As the race continues to veer into the negative, the NRSC has posted on their YouTube channel a 49-second video slamming the former U.S. Surgeon General for votes he made in the late '90's/early 2000's when he was on the Arizona Board of Medical Examiners.

Once Arizona's Politics is able to obtain (request has been made) and review the articles which the video relies upon, we will be better able to assess the validity of the allegations.  Interestingly, as opposed to the accusations by Christine Beato, the Board allegations are being made by the NRSC and not Flake directly, and only on the internet rather than in the NRSC's currently-airing TV ads.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

In Making Point About Arpaio Undecideds, Republic Columnist Lends Credence To Arpaio's Campaign Manager's Poll

(UPDATE, 3:38pm: Ms. Roberts has commented on this post, in the comments under her post; I hope that she will edit her post, whether or not it is published in tomorrow's paper.)

I often appreciate the work that Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts does, but she knows better.  I am sure that she knows that Arpaio Campaign Manager Chad Willems is the President of Summit Consulting Group.

Yet, apparently in the interest of making her point about the large number of "undecideds" in the "poll", she lends credence to the poll itself.  She does not note that it was almost as if Sheriff Joe himself called people up and asked whether they would vote for him or his opponent.  She also does not take note of many of the other issues with the poll that our previous post addressed.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

WATCH: VoteForVets.org Brings Back Ad Attacking Flake's Votes Re: Military

The self-described "largest progressive group of veterans" is plunking down another (at least) $117,000 to attack Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-CD6) previous votes against the G.I. Bill and other veterans-related legislation.

The ad features a Chandler veteran (Steven Lopez) speaking to the camera and focuses solely on Flake's votes, even though Democratic nominee Richard Carmona is himself a veteran.

VoteVets.org says they are teaming up with the National Education Association to bring back the ad, and say that they are spending another $315,000.  The filing with the Federal Election Commission only shows that they spent $117,012.50 yesterday, bringing their total to $281,162.50.  (It also shows that the Flake-Carmona race is taking place in Indiana, a coding error that made it more difficult to find.)


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

HANGING CHAD: Arpaio Touts New Poll...Done By His Campaign Manager!

The news release from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's campaign screams "Sheriff Arpaio Has Commanding Lead for Re-Election".  It cites two polls.  The most recent - but, still conducted just before his ad accusing his Democratic opponent Paul Penzone of "hitting a woman" (see, Fact Check) hit the airwaves - was conducted by Summit Consulting Group ("Summit").  The President of Summit is Chad Willems.  The very same Chad Willems who is Arpaio's Campaign Manager.  So much for the appearance of an impartial poll.

The other poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (which goes by its initials) is an exclusively-Republican outfit.

The polls both showed Arpaio up, 45%-30% and 47%-33%, respectively.  Interestingly, the long-time sheriff's numbers in his two polls bracket the 46% showing in a Penzone-commissioned poll released last week, which Willems dismissed.  (It showed 46.8%-42.1%.)

Beautifully, Willems quotes himself in the news release... as campaign manager.  But, not as pollster.



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HERE'S LOOKIN' AT YOU, ARIZONA: Flake-Carmona Race Exhibit 1 Of Growing Negativity

Well-known newsman Al Hunt has a blog post on the International Herald Tribune (the global edition of the New York Times, according to its masthead) today, noting that Congressional campaigns are getting "positively negative."  As Exhibit 1, he cites the Arizona Senatorial race between Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and former U.S. Surgeon General (and Democratic nominee) Richard Carmona, and the Flake ad airing Christine Beato allegations that Carmona had pounded on her door late at night.

He adds the Florida Connie Mack-Bill Nelson battle, as well as citing other senatorial campaigns in Wisconsin, Indiana and Connecticut.


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WATCH: Carmona - Flake Debate (Discussion) On KUAT Monday

Yesterday was the third time in the past week that Rep. Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona sat down together for a discussion/debate.  (Arizona Republic editorial board, KAET were the first two.)  The discussion was predictably testy.

Here is the video, courtesy of KUAT:

                                   





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Monday, October 15, 2012

UH-OH! Wall Street Journal Editorial Says Jeff Flake "Flips Out" In Campaign

Perhaps the Wall Street Journal editorial writers were not watching the Arizona Senatorial primary as closely as others, but they cite Rep. Jeff Flake's recent actions and statements as evidence of "Flake's Flip Out."

Their evidence?  Two items: retreating from his Grover Norquist/Americans For Tax Reform no-tax pledge, and attacking Democratic nominee Richard Carmona's character with the Christine Beato allegations ad.

It notes that candidates usually (as of late) allow outside groups to run these types of character-impugning charges, and wonders whether Flake thinks it is "merely payback."

The conclusion hits hard, even as it tries to soften the blow with a bit of its more-customary praise:  "As Paul Ryan noted in last week's vice-presidential debate, "If you don't have a good record to run on, paint your opponent as someone people should run from. Make a big election about small ideas." But Mr. Flake has both a solid record and big ideas to run on, so why isn't he?"



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Sunday, October 14, 2012

A NEW CHAPTER! Gov. Brewer's JanPAC Jumps Into Campaign!

After raising more than one-quarter of a million dollars, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's SuperPAC is finally spending a bit of it on campaigning.  The eponymously-named Jan PAC, Brewer's own SuperPAC, spent $23,256.74 on Friday for a mail piece attacking former State Senator Kyrsten Sinema as she battles Vernon Parker for Arizona's new Congressional seat (CD9).

The Governor - and, her PAC - received much attention for the amount that JanPAC had raised, and how much was actually spent on buying copies of her book Scorpons For Breakfast, from Amazon (which helps keep up its rankings).  So, this first campaign-related expenditure is noteworthy.

Also noteworthy (although it has not received much attention), is that - while they have the financial means - the Governor and her family have NOT contributed to JanPAC.

(If you receive a copy of this - or, other election mailers - please forward a copy to Arizona's Politics at the e-mail address listed below.)


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Friday, October 12, 2012

AS SEEN ON TV: A Slew Of Campaign Ads, Many Straight From the Slough

("As Seen On TV" is a running series on Arizona's Politics focusing on which campaign ads are airing on Arizona at the moment.  Please add YOUR eyes and ears to this feature!)

The onslaught of campaign advertising - the slew of spots - comes as early ballots are finding their way to mailboxes across the state.  Of course, due to the competitive nature of several of the races - and the national attention they are receiving - we will likely continue to see this level (frequency) of messages.  And, they will probably continue to be at this level (negativity) or below.

Thanks to Diana B.'s and a-friend-who-wishes-not-to-be-named, we have been able to compile quite a lengthy list of ads that have been flooding Phoenix airwaves (need some Tucson contributors!) over the past 36 hours.

We will post the list now, and will supplement throughout the day as we are able to find time to find and add the ads.  The list is in order of number of spottings and (secondarily) chronological:

4: --National Republican Senatorial Committee ("NRSC") spot accusing Richard Carmona of being President's hand-picked rubber-stamp. (2 spots) 

3: --Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ("DSCC") ad focusing on Jeff Flake and women's issues
3: --Jonathan Paton ad for CD1, contrast.
3: --Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") ad attacking Paton.
3: --Club For Growth ad asking how well do you know Carmona.
3: --DCCC ad attacking Vernon Parker in CD9.
3: --No New Taxes On 204 says it is a permanent tax increase.
3: --DSCC spot attacks Flake by superimposing him on Arizona canyon faces with previous votes.
3: --Carmona ad emphasizing seniors issues.
2: --Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio positive message with wife Ava.
2: --National Republican Congressional Committee ("NRCC") message attacking Kyrsten Sinema's comments about Scottsdale stay-at-home mom, CD9.
2: --DCCC says Paton is no friend of seniors.
2: --GOP-philic American Future Fund ("AFF") attacks Kirkpatrick.
2: --Sinema ad focusing on children and women's issues; she stands among them.
2: --Yes On 204:  Quality Education For Arizona features teachers extolling sales tax.
1: --NRCC tells Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) that the party is over.
1: --Barack Obama says that Mitt Romney is after Big Bird (supposed to be humorous).
1: --Dem-philic House Majority PAC goes after Vernon Parker.
1: --No On 115 group criticizes proposal to change way judges are installed onto the bench
1: --Sinema with kids. 
1: --Arpaio levels domestic violence allegations (watch ad, read Fact Check).
1: --Flake ad featuring Carmona's supervisor while he was U.S. Surgeon General.
1: --Kirkpatrick spot addressing SuperPAC ads attacking her.
1: --Kirkpatrick spot noting her odometer in getting to know the district. (Oldie but goodie?)


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FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Under $1Million, DSCC Leads Way In Anti-Mt. Rushmore Ad

It has been another big (spending) day in Independent Expenditure ("IE") monies flowing (mostly) into Arizona.  Under $1Million, though just barely.  We'll recap here, and try to provide more detail in our "As Seen On TV" post.

-- The Democratic-philic House Majority PAC doubled down on its advertising against GOP nominee Martha McSally in CD2, spending $6,761.39 to produce a negative ad and $142,684.97 to air it.  That pushed them over the $300,000 mark in that race.

--Conservative group Freedomworks spent $35,000 on "Voter ID" to support Rep. Jeff Flake in the Senate race.  They have put boots on the ground in Arizona and have now spent over $611,000 in that race.

--The DCCC ("Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee") spent $11,150 to produce another negative ad against GOP nominee Vernon Parker in CD9.  They have put $684,000 into that contest.

--The Republican-philic Club For Growth spent more than a quarter of a million dollars (approx. $254,000) on mailers and e-mailers to support their long-time fave Jeff Flake.

--The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ("DSCC") threw down another $454,243 on its ad putting Jeff Flake on the sides of rocks (very unlike Mt. Rushmore).  The DSCC is approaching $1 Million in Arizona ($959,000).



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Thursday, October 11, 2012

FACT CHECK: Arpaio Ad Accusing Penzone Of Domestic Abuse: We Deserve Better Than That

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio began running a powerful new ad against his Democratic opponent Paul Penzone today.   Watch it here.

Here is the text of the ad, as transcribed by Arizona's Politics, with a description of the visuals in parentheses:
For years, Paul Penzone was the face of Silent Witness.  (Black/white photo of Penzone, his name gets typed in.)
But, in 2003, Paul Penzone pushed his then-wife against a door, injuring her in front of their child. (Ominous photo of man at top of stairs with what looks like a saw in hand, woman below with black eye. Then, typed out quotes from Ms. Penzone's application for Order of Protection: "He was intimidating and terrifying me", "He pushed me into the door.")
He's tried to explain it away, but there's no excuse for hitting a woman.  (Penzone photo, with police lights flashing.)
Now, the only silent witness is his ex-wife.   (Photo of woman with head in hands.)
We deserve better than that.  ("We deserve better than Paul Penzone.  If you or a loved one has been the victim of domestic violence, call your local police.")
Here is a copy of the statement from the Arpaio campaign:

Here is a copy of the police report, which was also provided by the Arpaio campaign this afternoon. And, here is the portion of Susan Penzone's Petition For Order of Protection that was used by the Arpaio campaign:


There are several problems with Arpaio's powerful ad:
1)  The basic details of the incident are very much in dispute.  It was a he-said, she-said situation, no charges were filed, Paul Penzone was the one who called the police while his then-estranged wife said that she had started to but decided to talk with her attorneys first, she did not tell the officers that day about being "intimidat(ed) and terrif(ied)", the dueling Orders of Protection were quashed, the parties were awarded joint custody.  This ad states the push as an adjudged fact, when it is far from that.
2) The powerful visual of the violent man and the towered-over woman with a black eye is an extremely prejudicial image and is unwarranted given the Penzone narrative.
3) Ad claims he had no excuse for "hitting a woman", but the alleged push is not the same.  An exaggeration should not have been necessary.
4) Claiming the "only silent witness is his ex-wife" makes it appear that Susan (then) Penzone has somehow been silenced.  She has not, although she did decline the New Times' request for a comment several months ago.
5) The final graphic about domestic violence is designed to add a public service announcement element to this negative ad. Clever, but also an exaggeration that implies that there was a verdict against Penzone.

Presenting a disputed and unadjudicated incident as fact - without indicating that there is doubt - is a problem.  That is different than airing an opinion, which everyone should welcome.  This is a candidate becoming a judge and jury, and finding serious and emotional accusations against an individual to be fact.  The parties themselves and the legal system did not adjudicate the competing narratives and, thus, found them to be in dispute.

This misrepresentation is serious enough.  But, to then exaggerate the accusations to make it even more dramatic was unnecessary, egregious and designed to inflame the new jury (i.e. the voters).

The ad concludes by saying that voters deserve better than Penzone.  Voters deserve better ads than this.  Arpaio earns a "D-" for this ad.


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WATCH: Arpaio's New Anti-Penzone Ad Signals New, No-Holds-Barred Phase Of Campaign

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio today began airing a tough new ad against his Democratic opponent Paul Penzone.  Together with anti-Arpaio ads that have begun to air sporadically, it is sure to kick this campaign into a new, tougher phase.

The new ad raises the domestic violence incident that occurred between Penzone and his then-estranged (now, divorced) wife.  The police report includes the he-said, she-said allegations.  She said that he pushed her (which he denies), and he says that she smacked him with their child's hockey stick (which she said may have happened).

The new ad takes the she said and runs with it, and adds a few details that the police report did not include.  It states that it happened in front of their then 10-year old, and the visual shows a much more extreme example of domestic violence.


Arpaio's campaign sent out to media a copy of the police report, the wife's application for an order of protection (which was quashed, along with husband's), and a statement.  We will publish those shortly.


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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

SURPRISE: National Right To Life OPPOSES Vernon Parker In CD9!

Monitoring the FEC (Federal Election Commission) can provide a little surprise here and there.  Partly it is because of the forms that organizations need to complete and file electronically, they can be confusing.

Today's big surprise:  the National Right to Life PAC filed today that it spent money on mailers in support of Arizona's Republican candidates for the U.S. House and Senate.  Well, all except for Vernon Parker, the GOP nominee for CD9:


Certainly, that was a simple coding error, either at the NRTL PAC or at the FEC.  But, there is no chance that that organization is telling its members to support Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema.

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Tonight's 5pm Debate Between Senatorial Candidates Broadcast On Phoenix Channel 8 and C-Span

Tonight's debate between the candidates seeking to replace Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) in the U.S. Senate will be broadcast live on both Channel 8 (Phoenix) and C-Span.

The hour-long conversation will feature the Libertarian candidate, Marc Victor, along with the better-known Democratic and Republican nominees, Dr. Richard Carmona and Rep. Jeff Flake (respectively).

C-Span is showing the Massachusetts Senatorial debate between Scott Brown (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) as the lead-in.


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WATCH: As MLB Playoffs Start, The Republicans' Pull Unprecedented Anti-Carmona Triple Play

(UPDATE, 3:00p,m.: Thanks to the NRSC for e-mailing me the link to their ad, now embedded in  the article.)

On Friday, the baseball playoffs started.  We all know how baseball keeps statistics on everything, and we know how rare a triple play is (three outs achieved in one play).  In fact, there has only been one in Arizona since the Diamondbacks started play in 1998.

On Friday, there was a rare triple play in Arizona political advertising history, although we do not know how rare because statistics are not kept as fastidiously.  However, having been involved with campaigns and the media for too long (long before SuperPACs geometrically increased the number of negative ads), I can guess that this may be a first.

Just before Jakob Dylan and The Wallflowers rocked David Letterman's show, KPHO (Ch.5 in Phoenix, CBS) had a local commercial break.  After one anti-Kyrsten Sinema ad, there were three ads in a row from three different groups attacking the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Richard Carmona!

The conservative Club For Growth kicked things off:

The Republican nominee, Rep. Jeff Flake, was next:

The third play came from the National Republican Senatorial Committee:


Just as in a baseball triple play, some elements were out of the GOP's control.  Channel 5's traffic department had a large part to play, and the timing of the three ad runs had to mesh.  (It is a little surprising that it happened several days before the start of early voting, or election day.)




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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Another Million Dollar Day In Outside Monies

The outside money pouring into Arizona is hitting flood levels as the voter registration deadline hits and early ballots will be going out soon.  Arizona's Politics will try to keep an up-to-date register of the IE (Independent Expenditure) monies.

Here are today's filings with the FEC (Federal Election Commission)

1) The Communications Workers of America's PAC bought $150,150 ($4,549 to produce) of ad time to attack GOP candidate for CD9 Vernon Parker.

2)  The DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) went big opposing Parker and CD1 candidate Jonathan Paton.  They bought ad time totaling $211,343.58 for the former and $212, 323.50 for the former.

3)  The NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) spent just $30,000 on media opposing CD9 Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema, although they say that brings their total to over $700,000.

4)  Women Vote! paid $15,815.52 for a mailer against Paton.

5)  The NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) finally filed its ad (which has been running for several days) against Richard Carmona.  They have paid $638,753.08 for it.

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VIEW: The Romney Photo That Will Be Everywhere By Tomorrow; Hey, He Must've Had Something On His Slacks

Oh, my.  Hopefully, we can all see the humor in this surely-innocent reaction and the photo without getting all middle-school-humor and giggly and all.  (Sure, there will be some folks who will be outraged, and some who will make stupid remarks, and others who would have done the opposite if it had been the Democratic candidate who could have been the butt of the jokes.)

There must have been some reaction, because the Associated Press felt it necessary to make a "caption addition" to clarify.  Further, the 2nd shot provides further clarification.

Romney, posing with some school kids in Virginia on Monday:

Here's the link to the AP's "caption addition"!

By the way, here's the 2nd picture:

(By the way, I also like the reactions of the girl in the yellow and black shirt, watching the much-more-demonstrative girl.)

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Friday, October 5, 2012

WATCH, FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Democratic SuperPAC Tacks On $260k To Its Ad Attacking Flake's Lack of Support For Veterans; $1.3Million Dollar Day In Arizona Senate Race

Today was a big big-money filing day at the FEC (Federal Election Commission), and Arizona's tight Senate race received more than its share of attention.  We already detailed the half-million dollar ad buys by the Club for Growth and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; now we end the day with a $261,000 ad buy from the Democrat-philic SuperPAC "Majority PAC".

The expenditure brings its total spending on the advertisement - attacking Rep. Jeff Flake (R-CD6) for his votes against a GI Bill and job training for veterans - to more than $400,000 ($405,036.02, to be exact).

Here's the ad:  





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WATCH, FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: DSCC Drops Half-Million On Ad Painting Jeff Flake As "Too Extreme For Arizona Women"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee filed with the FEC this afternoon that it has spent more than a half-million dollars on an ad attacking Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-CD6) record on women's issues, and urging women to vote for Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

The production and advertising costs come to $505,682, almost as much as the conservative Club for Growth just spent on an ad attacking Carmona.

Here's the ad:


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WATCH, FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS: Club For Growth Resumes Its Spending Barrage For Flake's Senate Campaign

Just as we were beginning to wonder why the Club For Growth had not yet jumped into the general election battle for Arizona's seat in the U.S. Senate, the conservative powerhouse jumps in with both feet, with a $530,000 television ad buy attacking Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

CFG poured more than $1.6 Million into Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-CD6) Senatorial primary battle against self-funded Wil Cardon, and Arizona's Politics has detailed the close ties between the organization and Flake before.  Now that polls are demonstrating how tight the general election contest has become, CFG is stepping up again.

Here is the new ad:


A quick check of FCC reports filed by two Phoenix TV stations (which have been especially good about filing their reports quickly) does not show the ad buy yet, but CFG has filed today with the FEC that the money was expended on Wednesday.

(Please let Arizona's Politics know if, when and where you see this ad.  Not to mention sending us information about other ads you see, mailers you receive, etc.  (News) tips from readers like you help make this blog more interesting.)



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WATCH: McCain Primetime 2 Nights In a Row, Steps Up Rhetoric On Obama and Susan Rice: "Probably One Of The Worst Things I've Observed In My Entire Life"

Arizona Senator John McCain (R-AZ) completes (t)his interview tour of the three major cable news networks tonight, when he sits down with CNN's highest profile interviewer Piers Morgan.  In a preview released by CNN this afternoon, he rips into the Obama Administration and Susan Rice (U.S.' Ambassador to the U.N.) for maintaining that the attack in Libya that took the lives of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans may have grown out of a demonstration of an anti-Muslim YouTube video, instead of a planned terrorist attack.

McCain calls Rice's comments on the September 16 Sunday morning news shows "Probably one of the worst things I've observed in my entire life."



The rest of his video airs tonight at 6pm (Arizona Time) (and will be repeated later in the evening).

Here is a video of Susan Rice's comments on CBS' Face the Nation program on September 16.  She notes that an investigation had begun, and leaves open the possibility that the evidence might show that it was more than spontaneous.


Below the jump, the transcript of that interview is laid out.

Very interestingly, the very next guest on that Face the Nation - in the same chair - was John McCain - he probably saw and/or spoke with Rice during the commercial break.  However, when repeatedly given the opportunity to criticize Rice, he declined to mention her by name and broke off most of his criticisms of the Administration.  He only repeated his complaints that the Obama Administration has made the U.S. the "weak horse" and has "disengaged."

McCain has seen some pretty hardcore things and comments in Washington in the past 25-plus years (and before), and some would say that he has said some pretty misleading things during that time.  For this to be one of the worst sounds a bit like the-close-election-is-almost-here hyperbole.  (One of the most hyperbolic statements I've heard in my entire life?)

***

Tonight's interview will complete his two-day tour of major programs on the three cable news/political networks.  Yesterday, he hit "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, where "he warned Romney and the Republicans to "not underestimate President Obama" and attributed his debate performance to "rust".

Then, last night, he visited his frequent interviewer Greta Van Susteren on Fox News:






Thursday, October 4, 2012

Forget The Birth Certificate, Some Will Now Want To See Obama's Marriage Certificate; "Marriagers" Are Birthed

(UPDATE, 10/6/12, 9:30am: After a lengthy check of Dreams From My Father, Arizona's Politics was unable to find any reference to the date that Barack and Michelle Obama were married.)

Welllll, since we are in debate mode, we could lead this by saying "Well, there you go again!"  President Obama led off last night's debate by wishing his wife, Michelle, a Happy Anniversary.  Both he and GOP nominee Mitt Romney made little jokes about celebrating it at a debate.

However, some Obama opponents are questioning whether the President has lied to the American people.  (They would add the word "again".)  They have uncovered cites showing that the 20th anniversary will not take place until October 18, meaning that he made a cynical and dishonest play for good feeling at the debate.


If you can read the initial post, he notes that the source is Obama's memoir, and thanks a California woman for pointing it out.  I have not yet been able to verify that source, but did find that biography.com does use the October 18 date.

The Facebook discussion references that Wikipedia mysteriously pulled the wedding date off of its site, but we were able to find that the Michelle Obama article still lists the October 3 date as being their anniversary, and the history page does not show any removals.  Additionally, the ever-authoritative People Magazine website ran an article yesterday on that day's anniversary.

Fortunately, telling the truth about your wedding date (or, for some unsuccesful candidates, "wedding dates") is not a constitutional prerequisite for being President;  otherwise, we would be reporting on a hastily-called Sheriff Arpaio news conference this afternoon.


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Additions To Yesterday's Polling Stories, With Comments From PPP and High Ground; Excluding Libertarian Makes Poll More Accurate

We received some interesting e-mails this morning in response to our reporting (and our inquiries) on the just-released Public Policy Polling of Arizona voters.  We have updated the article on the poll numbers of the Arizona Obama-Romney (and not Obama-Romney-Johnson) race, and the article on the high number of self-identified Republicans included in the new survey.

In a nutshell, nothing nefarious in PPP's using numbers from a question eliminating the Libertarian candidate from the choices, and the large number of Republicans in the poll may be an indication of turnout and/or good feelings about the GOP.

Thanks to Tom Jensen of PPP and Paul Bentz of High Ground.


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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

New Arizona Poll Samples (Even) More Heavily From GOP Voters

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:15AM: Correcting High Ground's name and adding comments from High Ground VP Paul Bentz.)

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:40am: Updated to include PPP's response to inquiry that it does NOT weight its polls for party affiliation.)

The new Public Policy Polling ("PPP") Arizona poll might help disprove the recent (national) Republican meme that mainstream polling outfits are overstating President Obama's support because they are under-sampling Republicans.  Or, it might indicate that the GOP teeth-gnashing is having an effect on (some) pollsters.

(UPDATE:  PPP's Tom Jensen told Arizona's Politics that it does not weight its polls for party, indicating that it was not reacting to conservative criticisms of recent polling.)

Of course, the third option is probably more likely: that polling pools often vary in their party affiliations, because pollsters do not control for that because party self-identification is a varying element that often is at odds with how people are actually registered.  (Personal experience confirms this: my mother often told people she was a Democrat, and was very surprised when I told her that she was actually registered as an "R".)

Current registration numbers show that 36% of Arizona voters are registered as Republicans, 30% as Democrats and 33% as something else.  Yet, the new PPP poll has a pool consisting of 46% self-identified "R's", 29% "D's", and 25% "I's/others".

That is not only up from PPP's last Arizona poll three weeks ago (44-36-21), but it is even greater (for Republicans) than the percentages that Republican consultants at High Ground thought would be appropriate, when they bemoaned the national polling pools.  (They thought Republican voters should make up 41-44% of any Arizona polling pool.)

(UPDATE:  Paul Bentz, VP at High Ground, responded to Arizona's Politics inquiry by noting that PPP's poll "is interesting in that it does indeed oversample Republicans. Its not outside the realm
of reason in its sampling, but it emulates the 2010 "tea party" turn out - not the 2008 and 2004 turnout."

He notes that the PPP poll, as well as High Ground's, confirm that the race is very close and that "it will
be critical for someone to grab the momentum in the next week coming up on Early Ballots.")


PPP confirmed to Arizona's Politics that "we do not weight our polls for party."  As PPP does not do that, it is interesting that some 10% of the random pool would seem to identify as Republicans even though they may be registered differently.  That is outside the 4% margin of error, and would seem to indicate that Arizonans are - currently - even more GOP-philic than the registration figures indicate.


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READ: New Poll Shows Carmona +2 Over Flake; Romney 11 Pts Up In AZ

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:40am: Added response from PPP's Tom Jensen regarding use of the 11% margin on the Presidential race, rather than the 9% margin.)

The trend may be in favor of Democratic candidate Richard Carmona for Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat.  He leads Rep. Jeff Flake (R-CD6) by 45%-45%, well within the 4% margin of error.  Public Policy Polling (PPP), a national company said to lean slightly Democratic, just concluded its most recent poll of Arizona voters.

Its previous polling on the race was only three weeks ago, and it had shown Flake up 44%-43%.  That 3-point swing could constitute a "trend", or it could simply be because of the different pool sampled in each of the two polls.

Mitt Romney has opened a larger lead over President Barack Obama among the likely Arizona voters, opening up an 11-point margin, 52%-41%.  (Inexplicably, PPP uses the 53%-44% numbers reflected when the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is not included in the question;  he is on Arizona's ballot, and apparently draws more of his 4% support from Obama than Romney.)

(UPDATE:  Tom Jensen of PPP tells Arizona's Politics that they used the question that did not include the Libertarian candidates because "historical precedent" indicates that Johnson will get "less than 1%"; therefore, they believe that the Obama-Romney question is "a better measure of the final outcome.")

Here is a link to the questions asked and numbers received, so far.  PPP will likely release additional Arizona polling information over the next couple of days.


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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

WATCH: John McCain Makes Appearance At Nationals' Game, Bemoans "Vast Left Wing Conspiracy By the Commie Pinko Libs"; TR Still Loses!

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been an Arizona Diamondbacks' fan and regular special guest since the team came to town.  With the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs and the Washington (DC) Nationals winning the 1st ever Division title for the nation's capital, it was perhaps inevitable that he would pop up at Nations Park.

But, to cut a video to be shown on the big screen at the Nationals' game?  That hurts.

The Nationals have a nightly "race" for four big-headed ex-Presidents.  (The Diamondbacks have similar in-game entertainment, featuring four well-known ex-Diamondbacks.  By the way, could you imagine if we used four ex-Arizona Governors...?)  The running joke in D.C. is that President Theodore Roosevelt has never been "able" to win the race.

So, leave it to big TR fan McCain to threaten "a full investigation by the U.S. Senate" into any possible shenanigans.  (Hey, McCain has become involved in a few sports already!)



There are still two home games left for the Diamondbacks.  Will a 2nd McCain sobering-yet-rousing pep talk be in the cards?

Thanks to Politico for bringing this traitorous video to our attention.  And, here's the video of last night's race, the results of McCain's exhortations.  (I am sure he hopes Romney and other GOP candidates do not similarly fall on their faces!)





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