FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Monday, October 31, 2016

BREAKING/READ: Arizona Democrats Sue Trump/Stone/AZGOP To Stop The Stop The Steal Effort

Hours after Arizona's Politics reported on Donald Trump's "exit polling" efforts in Arizona, the Arizona Democratic Party filed suit against Trump, adviser Roger Stone and the Arizona Republican Party in federal court, asking that the "Stop the Steal" effort be stopped.

The 26-page complaint (below) thoroughly reviews the background of Trump's and Stone's statements and efforts to encourage supporters to monitor polling locations on Election Day (next Tuesday), and claims that the Arizona GOP is complicit.  The suit was filed by the Sarah Gonski in the Phoenix office of Perkins and Coie, with support from its DC office and David Boies' DC firm.

The Complaint alleges potential voter intimidation and violations of the Voting Rights Act, Arizona law and the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871, It seeks to stop the parties from questioning voters and to stop training/organizing/"deputizing" any individuals to do so.  It also asks the court to declare that Defendants' proposed exit polling and citizen journalist initiatives are contrary to law, and to publicize that Order to all law enforcement before Election Day.

Interestingly, per the court docket as of 4pm, no requests for emergency hearings or for a temporary restraining order have been filed.

Arizona's Politics has asked the Arizona Republican and Democratic parties for comment, but has not yet received responses.



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Fmr Arizona AG's Goddard, Woods Join 34 Other Fmr State AGs Criticizing FBI Director Comey

Two former Arizona Attorneys General - Democrat Terry Goddard and Republican Grant Woods - joined 34 other former state AGs in a letter criticizing FBI Director James Comey for his
surprise Friday announcement that new emails of interest were being looked at in the context of the Hillary Clinton private email server investigation.

The letter states that it appears that "Comey has made a serious mistake in allowing this unfair speculation and innuendo to exist." It criticizes making the announcement so close to the election, which they say runs counter to policies of the Justice Department and protocols that they worked under in their states.

The letter concludes by calling on Comey "to act immediately to provide needed clarity and explanation, and to limit the unfortunate damage
his actions have caused."

Grant Woods served as Attorney General from 1991-1999, and currently practices law in Tempe. Woods recently endorsed Hillary Clinton for President.  Terry Goddard was AG between 2003-2011 and practices law in Phoenix.

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Sunday, October 30, 2016

BREAKING: Trump's* Arizona Election Day "Exit Polling" Army Larger Than Other Swing States

(UPDATE, 10pm: Stone has added 17 new exit pollsters in Arizona over the 2 1/2 hours since this article was published (93 total). Also, although they have not yet been trained, the Arizona exit pollers have tallied 8 votes - 6 for Trump and 2 for Clinton.)

Arizona election day voters have a better chance of being greeted by a "Stop the Steal Exit Poller" than in other swing states. Donald Trump's behind the scenes political trickster Roger Stone* has signed up 76 people to monitor "pre-selected precincts" across the state.

The Stone Stop The Steal/Vote Protectors operation has apparently been scaled down since the Huffington Post ran an article on the official-looking badge generator designed for Trump supporters to video, monitor and exit poll on Election Day. (Stone is now claiming that the badge generator was from some "old version" of the site; however, Arizona's Politics confirmed that it was still operational immediately after the article was published online early on October 26.)

The initial "goal" of Stop the Steal was to have 5 "exit pollsters" for each of Arizona's 9 Congressional Districts. That goal was quickly surpassed after the Huffington Post's article, and the goal was increased over the weekend to approximately 12 per district. (Arizona's Politics confirmed that only about one dozen had signed up as of early on the 26th.)

Congressional District 9 has the most registered "exit pollsters" signed up (14), while CD3 only has 4. However, the average per CD is more than 8. Comparatively, other states that are toss-ups surveyed by Arizona's Politics range from 2.5/CD (Iowa) to 7.9/CD (Florida). Even Pennsylvania, where Trump has spoken out the most about getting supporters to monitor voting, only 136 have signed up across the state's 18 Congressional districts.

Nationwide, 2,297 people had registered on the website, as of 7:30pm Sunday.  Stop the Steal's website does not indicate whether they will ask registered "pollsters" to travel to "pre-selected precincts" that may be out of their home district.

Stop the Steal and Roger Stone have promised to train everyone who has volunteered. On his radio show this weekend, Stone said "our interviewers are being trained" and that the goal is a "completely neutral, scientifically valid exit poll." One registered pollster tells Arizona's Politics that he has "received nothing yet from them, and the website only gives us a summary of what each state's law is related to electioneering near a polling place." (Arizona's Politics is unable to see what is in the "Citizen's Toolbox" without registering.)

However, in the public area, in the News section, there is an official-sounding post that urges StoptheSteal'ers to videotape vans/buses coming and leaving from the polling areas. "Collecting evidence," is how he puts it.

In Arizona, the Republican and Democratic parties are both permitted to have one poll observer inside each precinct. Anyone is permitted to "exit poll" (or, campaign) outside the 75-foot perimeter; however, anything that  might be considered intimidation - whether it is in the form of uniforms, official-looking notices, videotaping, etc. - will receive close attention from the Election Board's marshall, party observers and could be restricted.

Arizona's Politics has received emails from both the Arizona Republican and Democratic poll observing operations. Both are seeking to recruit attorneys to monitor the polling places on election day.

(By the way, this reporter has actually conducted exit polling for a major news organization... many (32) years ago, before the nation's media had even formed their exit-polling consortium. That informative experience, coupled with knowledge gleaned over the years from several different perspectives, permits me to say unequivocally that Stone's Stop the Steal has zero chance of turning into a "completely neutral, scientifically valid exit poll" between now and election day. Surely, Stone knows this, as well, and this is just another in his long line of political tricks. No  treats.)



*Stone claims that he is "working with Stop the Steal". It really is his organization, however. It even features this wonderful poster and greeting from Stone.  Stop the Steal was created by Stone in the Spring when it appeared that Sen. Ted Cruz and #NeverTrumpers were trying to gain a majority of delegates to oppose Trump at the Republican National Convention. Stone was an early advisor to Trump's campaign, his foreign lobbying partner Paul Manafort later chaired the Trump campaign briefly, and Stone has run his activities officially off to the side (typically in a dark corner). Stone has been described as a "self-admitted political hitman," and dates his "black arts" activities back to Richard Nixon's infamous 1972 re-election campaign.

Stop the Steal is affiliated with Stone's pro-Trump Super PAC, the Committee to Restore America's Greatness. One of the interesting legal and accounting consultants is occasional Stone-related attorney Paul Rolf Jensen. The Trump campaign committee has also utilized Mr. Jensen's services. 

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Thursday, October 27, 2016

UPDATED: WOLVES IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING, INDEED: Arizona Republicans All In For Sending Swing District Green Party Candidate To Congress

(UPDATED version, 3:00pm. Original version can be found below the jump.)

Arizona's Politics previously reported on a small pro-Babeu Super PAC making robocalls on behalf of Green Party candidate Ray Parrish, in the swing district comprising much of northern and eastern Arizona. Now, the Arizona Republican Party is stepping in and throwing its mighty support behind the surprised Mr. Parrish. After all, according to two mailers forwarded to Arizona's Politics today: "Progressive Candidate Ray Parrish Stands With Our Values" (we added the emphasis).

The Arizona GOP has sent out multiple mailers to Democrats in CD1, where Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu is battling Tom O'Halleran to replace Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the toss-up district. The mailers hammer O'Halleran's past as both a Republican lawmaker and an independent, and try to push Democratic voters to the Green Party candidate.

The Arizona GOP denies that it is actually supporting Parrish. Chairman Robert Graham told Arizona's Politics that "First time I have heard this one. The AZGOP has not spent one penny helping candidates that are not Republican nominees." He correctly points out that Arizona Democrats did try to assist the Libertarians (in the U.S. Senate race) earlier this year, in getting on the ballot and fighting the court case.)

(Asked if he thought that someone sent out the mailers faking that they came from the state party, Graham answered with an emphatic "Yes!! I promise. You can audit our books.")

However, AZ GOP Communications Director Tim Sifert acknowledged that they are party mailers:   "(The) disclosure is correct, but that’s a contrast piece describing two candidates running against GOP nominee Paul Babeu."

Of course, the mailers both clearly disclose that they are paid for by the Arizona Republican Party, they do not mention GOP nominee Paul Babeu, and they repeatedly indicate that Parrish "stands with our voters" and is "true to our values" and "to us". (The mailers give no other indication as to who the "we's" and "our's" would refer to, other than that they are pretending to be from fellow Democrats or progressives)







Of course, there is no perfect way to pretend to be from Democrats and still make the necessary disclosure. But, using the words "we" and "our" has got to be the worst way. Sifert sums it up as clearly as he can: "When you are finished with the analysis and your conclusion is that the AZGOP thinks someone other than the GOP nominee is the best candidate, then I guarantee there’s something wrong with the analysis." He refused to answer questions about how much the party is paying for these mailers, and whether the state GOP is similarly praising other Green Party candidates

The mailers were forwarded to Arizona's Politics by northern Arizona Mike Rotter. Probably coincidentally, Rotter is now registered as a Democrat but indicates he previously supported and donated to Greens "in a previous state I lived in." Arizona's Politics then asked Mr. Rotter about his reaction to receiving these mailers, and he had a great emailed response:

"I had already voted early for Tom O'Halleran, I did find the flyers interesting as it informed me about the Green Party candidate (who I would normally vote for). Because it looks like a close election this year I decided to vote for the Democrat, also I think the first district needs someone like Tom O'Halleran that will be able work effectively for our communities. Frankly, I think it is embarrassing that the GOP cant support its own candidate in this district and have to work to siphon off progressives from the Democrat votes. Funny that the GOP actually have done more for the the Green Party than I have in recent years."

Parrish - who said on his Facebook page about the previous article: "Should I be outraged? Or take it where I can get it? Politics is a dirty game folks- has not yet commented on these new mailers.

As noted in our previous article, this follows in a growing line of groups and parties that aim to help their preferred candidate by trying to siphon some votes from the chief rival to a lesser-known. Arizona Republicans recruited Green Party candidates and Democrats "helped" Libertarians in 2010, former GOP Senate President Russell Pearce attempted to place a "sham" candidate on his recall ballot in 2011, and so on.

As Ballot Access expert Richard Winger pointed out, part of this development was enabled by the Arizona Legislature (controlled by Republicans) making changes to ballot access laws making it easier for Green Party candidates to get on the ballot while simultaneously making it more difficult for Libertarian Party candidates - who tend to siphon from Republicans - to clear the hurdles. (The Libertarians are still challenging that law in court.)

One last fun note: The Parrish picture on the top page above is well-cropped by the AZGOP mailer producers; here is the full picture from Parrish's Facebook page. He plays in a band, although he is not singing the same tune as the GOP.


Wednesday, October 19, 2016

When Panhandlers = Pundits (and, Pundits = Panhandlers); Dog Smarter Than Rest of Us

If you hustle over to the Chandler Blvd overpass at I-10, you might still be able to give this guy either a couple of bucks or a piece of your mind. 

Even his dog opened his eyes for the picture!

Light turned green before I had chance to ask the guy how he was going to cast a ballot. (I may have to go by again tomorrow.)
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Monday, October 17, 2016

BREAKING, HERE WE GO AGAIN: Pro-Babeu Group Throws Support To Green Party Candidate (FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS)

A group of contributors to Republican Paul Babeu's campaign for the tossup Congressional seat in Arizona's vast CD1 have (temporarily) thrown their support to Green Party candidate Ray Parrish. The Effective Leadership for America (ELA) Super PAC shelled out $2,400 for telephone robocalls made on Friday - likely to Democratic and independent early voters in the district.

(If you received this robocall, please let Arizona's Politics know. Especially if you have a digital copy that you can forward. As in past election years, Arizona's Politics will be having a prize drawing for readers who share robocalls, mailers, etc.)

ELA is funded by five individuals (below) who also contributed heavily to Babeu's official campaign committee (and a couple of corporations). In the primary race, ELA focused on radio ads supporting Babeu and ridiculing fellow GOP candidate Wendy Rogers.

Babeu is now locked into a dogfight with Democratic nominee Tom O'Halleran, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is advertising heavily against Babeu. Other national groups are likely to jump in, as well.

Parrish is the only other candidate on the general election ballot, and the Green Party nominee is likely to attract more Democrats than Republicans to his candidacy. He tells Arizona's Politics that he was not aware of the calls on his behalf.

ELA is following in a growing line of groups and parties that aim to help their preferred candidate by trying to siphon some votes from the chief rival to a lesser-known. Arizona Republicans recruited Green Party candidates and  Democrats "helped" Libertarians in 2010, former GOP Senate President Russell Pearce attempted to place a "sham" candidate on his recall ballot in 2011, and so on.



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Thursday, October 13, 2016

LISTEN: Sheriff Arpaio Robocall, Unedited: Criminal Contempt Charges Are Payback, "Dangerous"

(How can he be ironic? Let us count the ways.)

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio may have trouble reading a script, but he is certain that the criminal contempt charges against him are political payback because of his efforts to curb illegal immigration. The Sheriff has recorded a robocall (below) that is coming soon to a phone near you.

With pauses, in all of, the wrong, places, the octogenarian seeking election to a 7th 4-year term makes it clear that he does not understand the legal process that has led to him facing criminal contempt of court proceedings for undermining U.S. District Court Judge G. Murray Snow's orders in the long-running racial profiling proceedings.

Here is the text of the painful-to-listen-to robocall:

Hi, this is Sheriff Joe Arpaio calling with a very important message. I'm sure by now, you have heard about the Obama Department of Justice filing charges against me. Let me tell you what this is all about, because I led the fight against illegal immigration, doing the job the federal government refuses to do. They filed criminal charges against me for contempt of court the same day early voting started. Thinks about that: your federal government is now filing criminal charges against their political opponents but will not file contempt of Congress charges against former Attorney General Eric Holder or criminal charges against Hillary Clinton. This is not only wrong, it is dangerous. I'm going to fight this because I've never backed down from a fight and I never will. I hope you will join me. I'm Sheriff Joe Arpaio and I ask for your vote. (Paid for by Elect Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 602-592-7629.)


As for counting the ironies in this robocall, released the same day that his favored Presidential nominee made an epic deflection speech, Arizona's Politics will leave that to the listener/reader.

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Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Rep. McSally's GINORMOUS 3rd Quarter Money Haul!

From Politico's Morning Score column today, regarding Rep. Martha McSally (R-CD2):


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READ: Sheriff Arpaio's Re-election Fundraising Plea In Light of Criminal Contempt Proceedings

Copy of the solicitation email Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is sending out to his many thousands of contributors in wake of the hearing in U.S. District Court yesterday, at which criminal contempt of court proceedings were discussed:

MItch – 

This is breaking news that was just announced. I need you to read through it and take a moment torenew your support of me right away. 

In what is clearly pure politics at its worst, DOJ prosecutors have just announced that they will be charging me with criminal contempt of court! And this announcement comes just ONE DAY before early voting begins in my district. 

It is painfully obvious that the corrupt Obama Justice Department is trying to influence my re-election as Sheriff of Maricopa County. It is a blatant abuse of power and the American people should be as outraged as I am. 

 STAND WITH JOE >>  

Obama and Eric Holder started this garbage eight years ago. Now, with Obama on his way out of office, he and DOJ officials know this is their last shot at taking me down. This highly unusual charge of criminal contempt against an elected local official should be seen for what is really is: a political maneuver by a corrupt Administration to damage me politically and a continuation of its War on Cops. 

Think about this: Hillary Clinton can jeopardize national security and destroy evidence; Lois Lerner can violate the civil rights of thousands of citizens; Eric Holder can be held in contempt of Congress; and none of them faced any consequences. But someone like me who dares enforce the Rule of Law is held to a much different standard. 

I will fight this case tooth and nail because I know these charges are rubbish. I know that in the end, the TRUTH will prevail and my name will be cleared. That is why I am continuing my campaign for Sheriff. 

As someone who has built his life and career around upholding and honoring the law, this is a shocking and personally trying time. But I want to be clear: I have not been found guilty of ANYTHING and I am still running for Sheriff. 

 STAND WITH JOE >>  

And that is why I am asking for your URGENT support. This was clearly timed perfectly to upset my bid for re-election, with the announcement coming just ONE DAY before early voting begins. 

Despite the very best efforts of those on the left - who have proven themselves willing to sink to any low and use any method necessary to unseat me - I know that with YOUR SUPPORT I can still win in November. 

Honestly MItch, I am now more determined than ever to win this election. I refuse to be bullied into silence, and I will never back down from a fight where my reputation and more importantly our constitutional values are on the line. 

MItch, I never would have expected to be facing criminal charges. But I know that in the end the TRUTH will prevail. 

I need your support MItch now more than ever before. Please stand with me TODAY. 

Sheriff Joe Arpaio

Maricopa County, 
Arizona 


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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

BREAKING: Rep. Franks Goes After McCain's Unendorsement of Trump: "Profound Mistake...Potentially Destroy the Constitution"

Arizona Rep. Trent Franks (R-CD2) blasted Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) decision to unendorse Donald Trump and write in friend Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) as a "profound mistake" that could "potentially destroy the Constitution".
(Mark Henle/Ariz Republic)

Franks was quoted in a New York Times article about the House Republican caucus conference call convened yesterday by Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) as saying that no actions should be taken that could end up handing the White House to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, because that would put the Supreme Court at risk, which could end up allowing more fetuses to be destroyed.

On MSNBC this morning, Franks said the NY Times got the gist of his comments correct - I did say "little women" - but that he emphasized that while Trump's words were degrading towards women, Clinton's election would pave the way for many "little women" to be aborted.  Her election could "potentially destroy the Constitution."

When questioned about McCain's un-endorsement and his comments at last night's debate against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-CD1) that he might write in fellow Sen. Lindsay Graham (one of the first to tangle with and be forced out by Trump's campaign), Franks briefly hesitated before saying it "would be a profound mistake" if McCain did that.

Arizona's Politics will add the video once it becomes available.



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Saturday, October 8, 2016

BREAKING: Trump Compares New Grab 'Em Furor To John "Not A War Hero" McCain Comment Uproar

Donald Trump, the GOP Presidential nominee, is coming out swinging this morning, less than 12 hours after his forced apology video, comparing the new uproar over the "Grab them by the p***y" tape to when he said that Arizona Senator John McCain was "a loser" and "not a war hero" because he was captured.

Trump told the Washington Post this morning that "I'm holding up well". Here is his analogy to the McCain comments furor in July 2015:
Trump pointed to his disparagement of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) during the early months of last year’s Republican primary campaign as an example of how he has weathered political storms.
“Everyone said, ‘It’s over, it’s over.’ The people didn’t say that but the reporters said that,” Trump said. When asked to explain his ability in the past to survive, Trump said it’s because “I’m change.”
Since last July, McCain has occasionally criticized Trump but has indicated clearly that he would support his party's nominee. He has also repeatedly stated that he would not answer questions about Trump.

However, the furor that reached the boiling point* yesterday prompted McCain to release a short statement:
“There are no excuses for Donald Trump’s offensive and demeaning comments. No woman should ever be victimized by this kind of inappropriate behavior. He alone bears the burden of his conduct and alone should suffer the consequences.”
Although not quite comparable, the influential MCRC Briefs (not affiliated with the Maricopa pointed out this morning that McCain has had his own flare-ups with what could be described as misogynistic language. McCain's 2008 Presidential campaign brought rehashes of both his "joke" about Chelsea Clinton's appearance (he apologized), and calling his wife a c**t to her face in front of three reporters.**
County Republican Committee)

* In the Washington Post article this morning, Trump said "I don’t know how that’s going to boil down but people have no idea the support." It would appear that the pot may soon be ruined.
**MCRC pointed out the latter incident, Arizona's Politics added the Clinton example.

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Friday, October 7, 2016

John McCain "Is One Of The Worst Politicians Of His Time, Held In Contempt By His Party" - From FBI's Clinton Email Recovery (READ)

Arizona Senator John McCain "is one of the worst politicians of his time, held in contempt by his party," Sidney Blumenthal told Bill and Hillary Clinton in a memo that was recovered by the FBI and released by the State Departmet this afternoon.

The prolific Blumenthal made the comment in 2010, in what might be seen as an otherwise-prescient memo describing the "mutation" and "long-term disintegration" of the Republican party.* Interestingly, it came while McCain was battling J.D. Hayworth in the GOP primary to hold onto his Senate seat.

Blumenthal initially sent the memo to former President Bill Clinton, but also forwarded it to then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The latter asked aide Huma Abedin to print put the wide-range commentary.

Hillary Clinton and John McCain have had what appears to be a mostly-friendly relationship, despite political differences (and an inappropriate, scripted sexist/homophobic "joke"once about Chelsea, which McCain later apologized for); there is no evidence that either Clinton shared Bluenthal's opinion.

Blumenthal's memo was released today as part of a smallish batch of emails that had been recovered by FBI investigators from the recovered private server. No election-altering bombshells have been discovered (yet).

Wikileaks also utilized the art of the Friday afternoon before a long weekend document dump. They released the hacked Gmail account(s) of John Podesta, who is the Chairman of Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign.

Arizona's Politics searched that release for Arizona-related emails, as well. Other than learning that Podesta has been getting the same Ann Kirkpatrick for Senate emails that we have been receiving, there was not much to capture attention. And, that might explain the Friday afternoon timing, after Wikileaks had been promising a bombshell earlier in the week.

*"In fact, the national Republican Party is not a mirror image of the national Democratic Party, its members just happening to hold different views concerning policy. Since Nixon, the transformation of the Republican Party has been a dominant, if not the dominant factor in American politics. Tuesday's election was another milestone in its mutation and, since Reagan, its long-term disintegration."





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Thursday, October 6, 2016

BREAKING, READ: California Issues Arrest Warrants For New Times' Founders Lacey and Larkin, For Backpage Prostitution

Four weeks before election day, California Attorney General Kamala Harris' office issued arrest warrants today for the two founders of the Phoenix New Times, Michael Lacey and Jim Larkin. They are charged with conspiracy to commit pimping because of their spinoff company, Backpage.

Backpage's CEO, Carl Ferrer, was arrested today on those charges plus nine additional counts related to pimping underage children and other alleged felonies in connection with the operation.

The criminal complaint (below, along with Declaration detailing the investigation) claims that Backpage was earning gross revenues of more than $2M per month in California alone, and supporting documentation states that one week in 2015 saw worldwide revenues of $3.1M. California claims that 99% of those revenues are attributable to adult services.

Larkin and Lacey split off Backpage from the Phoenix New Times and other weekly publications in 2012, and indicated that they were staying with the new Backpage entity. The California AG claims that they essentially took over the space vacated at around the same time when Craigslist decided to stop accepting similar ads.

To the best of our knowledge, the last time the pair had arrest warrants out for them - and, got arrested - was in 2007, when Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and then-County Attorney Andy Thomas worked together to cuff and book them for misdemeanor charges that were later proven to be false. Maricopa County ended up paying $3.75M to settle those false arrest charges.

California AG Kamala Harris is running for a U.S. Senate seat from California, and is favored to win.

(Three months ago, the Wall Street Journal published this interesting article: Is Backpage.com a Champion of Web Freedoms or a ‘Dystopian Hell’?)






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Monday, October 3, 2016

Arizona Tracking Poll, Modeling Graphically Show Clinton Closing In On Trump - 2%, 1.6% Respectively (GRAPHS)

Donald Trump's latest whistle-stop appearance in Arizona today is supported by recent polling showing his lead over Hillary Clinton shrinking in the Grand Canyon State. The only publicly-available tracking poll of Arizona's likely voters on (or before) November 8 has shrunk to just 2 percentage points, while modeling of all polls show a 1.6% point lead.

Ipsos has been updating their Arizona polling numbers each weekend since after the parties' nominating conventions (using a two week rolling period). Until this week, the Trump lead for Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes has varied from 8% points (on Aug. 18) to 3 (the following week). The last several weeks have shown Trump consistently ahead by between 5 and 7 points.

Now, the gap is down to 2, 46%-44%. Here is how their weekly polling looks:

Meanwhile, the data gurus at FiveThirtyEight.com use national and Arizona data to model the election in different ways. If the election were held today, they say the data shows that Trump would likely end up in Arizona with a 45.4%-43.8% advantage, with a 61.3% chance of winning Arizona.



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BREAKING: If Trump Loses, AZGOP Chair Graham Will Run Vs. Priebus "With Passion"

Robert Graham, the Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, told Arizona's Politics last week "I will run with passion" against Reince Priebus for the Chairmanship of the Republican National Committee "if Trump loses."

Graham has set his sights on the national chairmanship previously, but most of the speculation has centered on a contested battle assuming that Priebus chose not to seek a third two-year term following next month's election. However, in August, Politico reported that Priebus was considering asking RNC committee members to keep him in office.

In an online conversation with Arizona's Politics about his reaction to the bombshell endorsement of Hillary Clinton by the Arizona Republic, Graham indicated that he has a firm plan in place.

"If Trump loses...I will run with passion. In the mean time I will do what I can to assure he wins," Graham wrote.



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