U.S. Budget Deficit UPDATES: Deficit Approaches $1.1Trillion For Past 12 Months!

Each month, we take a look at the U.S. Treasury's "Monthly Treasury Statement". We try to highlight - or, lowlight, as the case may be - key numbers. We have used Twitter for that, but realize that we should also share it here.

2/12/20: The January report is out. January has been one of the few months of the year where income exceeds spending. Not so this time. January 2020 was the first time in the past five years to show a deficit, of $32.6M. In fact, it was the worst January since 2011, when the country was still recovering from the Great Recession. In Fiscal Year 2016, the surplus in January was $55.2M.

The U.S. budget deficit for the past 12 months (Feb '19 - Jan '20) hit $1.1Trillion! ($1.1T if you round up; $1,063,321,000,000, to be precise.) The national debt is now at $23.3T.

We now have 1/3 of FY2020 in the books and we can see some spending trends taking shape. The only categories showing less spending than in the previous FY are the Labor Department (down 1.3% to $10B), and the Small Business Administration (18.3% less, to $352M). The General Services Administration is showing a profit for the first four months of the FY.

BREAKING: The U.S. budget deficit for the past 12 months (Feb '19 - Jan '20) hit $1.1Trillion! ($1,063,321,000,000, to be precise.) The national debt is now at $23.3T.

MORE DETAILS, and the report: https://t.co/8wEJPepyH1 pic.twitter.com/iK6hHAAPSg

— Arizona's Politics (@AZs_Politics) February 12, 2020

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Hey, #GoodNews?!? Our federal budget deficit was *ONLY* $3.9 billion higher last month than in the preceding November!

Unfortunately, #BadNews. Our federal budget deficit for the past 12 months was officially OVER $1 TRILLION! pic.twitter.com/ZhjONVYe2b

— Arizona's Politics (@AZs_Politics) December 11, 2019

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🚨BREAKING: Our budget deficit for October was $134B. That is a 34% INCREASE compared to the previous Oct.

This as our national public debt approaches $22.5T. pic.twitter.com/0ynCaEMWjs

— Arizona's Politics (@AZs_Politics) November 13, 2019

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cc: @RepAndyBiggsAZ (I do admire his willingness to keep the debt clock on the website.)

Re: tariffs: it appears from today's report that tariffs (not broken out by country) have increased by $2.2B from the previous Oct.

Source: https://t.co/fJzLew7KxE

— Arizona's Politics (@AZs_Politics) November 13, 2019

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Another note re: @ICEgov, spending on "Immigration and Customs Enforcement" went DOWN (negligibly) when compared to last October. From $641M (in a month!) to $638M.

— Arizona's Politics (@AZs_Politics) November 13, 2019

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BREAKING: New Chris Christie Org To Support Sen. McSally During Impeachment Period (WATCH)

Hours after we reported TV advertising has already surpassed $5 million in the Arizona Senate election, Chris Christie announces that his new organization will spend six figures over the next few weeks providing support for Sen. Martha McSally on the subject of impeachment.

"Right Direction America" is targeting Arizona and a handful of other states who have vulnerable GOP Senators up for election in 2020. Although the group is brand new, it is promising a "seven-figure TV and digital advertising offensive Monday." (According to Politico, the other states are Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina.) 

Christie is the former New Jersey Governor who unsuccessfully ran against Donald Trump for the 2016 Presidential nomination. Like many, he has had a kind of push-pull relationship with the President, and this foray into leading this new organization allows him to continue in that role.

Christie said "I really think there has been a lack of attention on the positive things the administration has done for the country and a tremendous amount of attention on the negativity, particularly from groups like Tom Steyer’s impeachment group."

As you can see from the sample ad below, the group is performing a couple of twists in order to support the Republicans while not having to disclose its contributors or spending. It is fashioning the ad as a "tell your Senator" issue ad. It is targeting the states' OTHER Senator - in Maine's case, the Independent Angus King, and in Arizona's case, Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). And, it is telling that Senator that CONGRESS has been preoccupied with impeachment and needs to get back to work. (In so doing, it risks degrading the GOP Senate's talking point that it has been working hard while the House has been distracted.)
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BREAKING: 11 Months Before Election, TV Spending In Arizona's Senate Race Breaks $5M; *Leads* Nation (#50ShadesOfDarkMoney)

If you watch local television, you will not be surprised: TV ad spending related to Arizona's U.S. Senate race just crossed the $5,000,000 barrier. You probably are not surprised that that easily leads the nation. Nor are you surprised that nearly all of it comes from dark money groups on both sides of the aisle.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, the money spent attacking and backing Sen. Martha McSally is nearly evenly split.

Democratic-philic groups have spent $2.6M so far. Advancing Arizona has been hammering Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) since September. It makes up most of the anti-McSally ad barrage, which started in September. Advancing Arizona has resisted all efforts by Arizona's Politics and other reporters to find out where the money is coming from. It rates a *perfect* "50" on Arizona's Politics "50 Shades Of Dark Money" spectrum.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the leading Republican-philic group to step up to try to counter-balance the McSally pummeling. The response has spent $2.5M, even though the Chamber did not start until the end of October. The U.S. Chamber also earns a dark "50".

The campaigns for McSally and likely Democratic nominee Mark Kelly have not yet run any TV ads, and are both stockpiling huge sums of money. Kelly has raised more money ($14M) than any other candidate in the nation - including incumbents, and even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell - and has $9.5M on hand (as of Sept. 30). McSally has raised $8.5M and has $5.7M in the bank.

The advertising figures are through December 14, and come from Kantar/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Spending in the North Carolina Senate race is the closest to Arizona, yet they are only at $4.0M.

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WATCH: Rep. Gosar: Do The Democrats "Hate" President Trump Because They Are Covering Up For Obama Administration? (ARIZONA'S POLITICAL SHORTS)

WATCH: Rep. Gosar: Do The Democrats "Hate" President Trump Because They Are Covering Up For Obama Administration? 
4:25p.m.: As the Republicans rush to allow all of their members a chance to speak on the House floor about the Articles of Impeachment, Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar (R-CD4) took his 30 second slot to posit that the Democrats "hate" President Trump so much because "they're trying to cover up" for the Obama Administration.

4:05p.m.: By my count, 143 (out of the 435) Representatives have spoken so far. (32.8%)

3 of Arizona's 9 Representatives have participated. (33.3%)


Rep. Grijalva: "Trump Has Perverted the Rule of Law" 
3:35pm.: Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-CD3) was the first Arizona Democrat to speak during today's impeachment debate. As Arizona's senior Representative, Grijalva took the opportunity to recognize his wife and granddaughters, and to say that President "Trump has perverted the rule of law, abused his power, and engaged in a cover-up."

Rep. Biggs Decries the "Sham" Impeachment Process
3:20p.m.: Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs (R-CD5) took his turn at the podium on the House floor a few minutes ago. He decried the impeachment process and referenced what he believed was a censure-able "lie" in the Intelligence Committee by Chair Adam Schiff. 

Rep. Lesko's 2nd Speech On Floor Re: Impeachment: "Stop This Sham!"
12:10p.m.: Rep. Lesko also became the 2nd of Arizona's nine Reps to speak on the House floor today... moments after we posted the first speech.

Here is her #2, in which she urges her Democratic colleagues to "stop this sham"!

11:40a.m.: Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-CD8) is the first of the state's nine Representatives to

speak on the floor during today's historic impeachment vote. (We will post all of them as they become available; it will be interesting both to see which take the opportunity to speak, and to see which do not take the podium during the seven hours.)

The member of the Rules Committee spoke during the debate on the rule. She dipped back to her personal history of leaving an abusive ex-husband and being without money to frame her remarks about this being the "most unfair" process and "most partisan impeachment in the history of the United States".
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READ: Rep. O'Halleran's Statement On Upcoming Impeachment Vote

Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D-CD1) was the only Arizona Representative whose vote on Articles of Impeachment was not already known. Here is his complete statement from this morning:

“Today is a somber day in America’s history. When I was elected to represent Arizona’s First

Congressional District in the House of Representatives, I never expected that we would vote on impeaching a sitting president.

“As a former law enforcement officer and criminal investigator, I spent my career gathering evidence and pursuing truth and justice. Throughout this impeachment inquiry process, I have remained committed to reviewing all of the facts before coming to a final decision on the matter. That is why I have reached my decision today, following the finalization of the official articles of impeachment.

“The constitution is a document we have lived by as a nation for over two hundred years. It is the shortest written constitution of any major government in the world, but it outlines clear grounds on which the impeachment of a sitting president is the correct course of action. Article II, Section 4 reads, “The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

“President Trump abused the power of the presidency and broke his oath of office when he bribed the nation of Ukraine by withholding military aid they had already been promised in exchange for help investigating a political opponent. The President’s own political appointees and phone call transcript confirmed these facts.

“I will vote to impeach the President because this bribery and abuse of power violated the constitution and put our national security and our international relationships at risk.

“Our democracy is the greatest in the world, and a model for many other nations. In our democracy, we must hold elected officials accountable when they break the public trust and put their own interests before the good of our nation.


“As we look forward to the second half of the 116th Congress, I remain committed to getting things done for Arizona families. We must work across the aisle to create good-paying jobs that grow our rural communities, lower health care costs for seniors and working families, and keep our promises to Arizona’s veterans.”

Arizona's Politics' co-founder, Paul Weich, started a new blog this week - UNimpeachableEvidenceAndNews - to present source documents and other news related to impeachment. Besides being able to read the Articles of Impeachment, the reports from both parties, etc., people who have difficulty reading print materials can listen or download the audio; Paul has recorded them as part of his volunteering for the non-profit reading service Sun Sounds of Arizona.

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Your FREE Holiday Gift-Packaging Exchange!!!

Arizona's Politics is excited to be participating in this new experiment.

Do you need just a few of those Styrofoam packing peanuts or bubble-packs to fill up the holiday gifts that you’re about to send? 

Received a bunch of packaging materials that you don’t want to trash, but don’t know what to do with?

Then, stop by our FREE Holiday Gift-Packaging Exchange, now through the end of the year!  

It’s like those “Have a penny, leave a penny; need a penny, take a penny” trays near the cash register. But, the goal of this exchange is to REDUCE plastics going to our landfills, REUSE packing materials, and SAVE our families money.

Sponsored by RSP Insurance, Arizona's Politics and the Law Offices of Paul Weich, our exchange is OPEN Monday the 23rd, from 10-noon and 2-4pm, then Thursday and Friday, same hours.  (Holidays may change the hours, check out ArizonasPolitics.com for details.)

Come to 2234 S. McClintock Drive in Tempe – conveniently located near the 202, 101 and the 60. Please bring your own bags or boxes to pick up peanuts/bubbles. Please only drop off clean packaging materials.

DONATIONS to Keep Arizona Beautiful and Every Kid Counts’ “Season of Giving” gratefully accepted.

PLEASE spread the word and tell your friends and family that they can participate in the FREE Holiday Gift-Packaging Exchange, too!!!

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ARIZONA'S POLITICAL SHORTS: Grijalva Lone AZ Holdout On Compromise Defense Bill

5:30pm: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-CD3) was the lone Arizona Representative to vote against the compromise defense authorization bill that passed overwhelmingly this evening.

The measure passed 377-48 and now heads to the Senate. Grijalva, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-CD7) and Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) were all members of the conference committee that resolved differences between the two houses (and the Executive Branch) on Monday. (Grijalva was only a conferee for issues relating to his Natural Resources Committee.)

The Congressman has not explained his no vote, but many of the 41 Democrats who voted "nay" felt that liberal priorities were not included in the compromise. 6 Republicans also opposed it, but no Arizona Representatives were in that small group.

Passage in the Senate is expected and President Trump has announced that he will sign it. For more details on the bill, please see this Politico article. Here is a link to the most recent text.


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NEW: Some House Dems Are Pushing Censure Instead Of Impeachment; AZ Rep. O'Halleran Is NOT Part Of That Group

A group of about 10 vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives is floating the idea of censuring President Donald Trump instead of impeaching him. Arizona Rep. Tom O'Halleran is NOT part of that group, Arizona's Politics has learned.

Politico reported on the Democrats - running for re-election in districts that voted for Trump in 2016 - this afternoon. Rep. O'Halleran (D-CD1) is in such a district, covering a wide swath of eastern Arizona; however, he has not joined the pro-censure cadre.

Communications Director Kaitlin Hooker tells Arizona's Politics that "Rep. O’Halleran is not a member of this group. He is waiting for the Judiciary Committee to advance the articles of impeachment to the full House before making a final determination."

O'Halleran did tell the Politico reporters last week that he "would prefer that we stick to what we have," meaning that any Articles of Impeachment NOT include counts related to past conduct such as detailed in the Mueller Report.

O'Halleran is co-chair of the Blue Dog Democrats, a coalition of moderate to conservative Democrats in Congress.

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