NEW: Republican Strategist: "A Majority Of Mormons Voted For Trump, But You Had a 10% Point Defection To Biden"

Longtime Republican strategist Tyler Montague thinks that the Arizona Republican Party's election contest filed last night based largely on supposed anomalies in the heavily Mormon portion of the East Valley and Queen Creek is "bull crap".

As reported earlier, the Complaint - filed as a proposed Complaint in order to permit AZ GOP Chair Kelli Ward's attorneys to begin discovery before the Contest can be filed following Monday's statewide

(photo from KJZZ/Will Stone)

canvass (aka "certification") - alleges that "the results in CD5/Queen Creek were strongly inconsistent with voter registration data (party affiliation) and with historical voting data (voting in previous elections including the 2016 Presidential election)."

Garrett Archer, a data analyst for ABC 15 who was formerly with the Secretary of State's Office, noted last week that one of the Queen Creek precincts showed an 8.9% point swing away from Trump this year. CD5 - which contains that portion of Queen Creek, as well as major parts of Mesa and Gilbert - also is cited as being an anomaly.

The precinct in Arizona (with over 1k voters) with the biggest swing away from @realdonaldTrump is in the GOP suburb of Queen Creek.
Trump 2016: 67.4%
Trump 2020: 58.5%
Swing: -8.9 pic.twitter.com/lSGKCX29hI

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 19, 2020

Archer's tweet last week caught the attention of many Republicans, who have used it to bolster their (inconsistent, and evidence-less) claims of fraud. 

Ward herself cited it as "(a)nother reason we need PRECINCT LEVEL audits in Maricopa County." (This makes little sense because voters from that precinct cast Election Day ballots at any of a number of Vote Centers in the area and around the county.) State Rep. Warren Petersen (R-LD12) then said that "This is my district and I can't see how this could possibly happen."

However, Montague cited three main reasons that Donald Trump received fewer votes than he did in 2016: Mormons, growth in the area from out of state, and people who were upset at Trump's posthumous treatment of longtime Arizona Senator John McCain. 

"A majority of Mormons voted for Trump. But, you had a 10% point defection," Montague asserts. He says that many East Valley Mormons (including himself) voted for Evan McMullin four years ago, and that "Biden picked up those third party defections this year."

Montague says the state party has "been putting out all sorts of bull crap.... It's embarrassing as a Republican to see this. Let's go win it by connecting with people and talking about good policies."

The hearing on Ward's request to permit discovery is at 10:30a.m. on Monday. At 11:00a.m., Arizona's results are going to be canvassed (certified). Immediately after the canvass, anyone has five days to file a Complaint contesting the election for grounds specified in Arizona law.

(Tonight, at 6pm, tune into ABC15 to watch friends @TomRyanLaw and @ThePolitiKat discuss the new lawsuit.)

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LIVE: Trump Campaign's Arizona Court Challenge to Maricopa County Voting

We are live-tweeting today's evidentiary hearing and oral argument in the Trump campaign's court challenge to Arizona's voting. Click on the below tweet to follow the latest:

UPDATES on Trump campaign's Arizona election irregularities lawsuit:

— "AZ Law" (@arizonaslaw) November 12, 2020

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BREAKING AWAY: Snell & Wilmer Attorneys Dump Trump's Election Irregularities Case

As the Trump campaign's Arizona election irregularities case goes to trial tomorrow morning, the plaintiffs will be without two of the high profile attorneys who helped begin the case on Saturday.

Two of Snell & Wilmer's partners - Eric Spencer and Brett Johnson - had helped Donald J. Trump for President and the Republican National Committee successfully intervene in last week's so-called Sharpiegate case. When the plaintiffs in that case - represented by the conservative Public Interest Legal Foundation - dismissed the suit on Saturday, Snell & Wilmer and Statecraft Law immediately filed a new case on behalf of the Trump campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party. 

The case was filed only a few hours after most news organizations projected that Joe Biden had defeated the President. Less than 21 hours later and without any public developments, Spencer and Johnson filed a little-noticed withdrawal.

The attorneys not only withdrew, but they attempted to make it clear that they had not been representing either the Trump campaign or the AZGOP. (They did not file an after-the-fact withdrawal in the previous case, which makes it unclear if they had represented the President in that case.) Their withdrawal was only from representing the RNC.

Phoenix-based Snell & Wilmer is on the cusp of being one of the 100 largest law firms in the nation (measured by the number of attorneys). Spencer was Arizona's State Election Director under former Secretary of State Michele Reagan, and Johnson is one of the best-known election law attorneys in the state and has represented Governor Doug Ducey in a number of recent Covid-related legal actions.

Their withdrawal came just before the New York Times published an article reporting on the "Growing Discomfort at Law Firms Representing Trump in Election Lawsuits". That article lays out some of the pressures from other clients for the large firms as well as internal discussions about representing the Trump campaign.

"Some senior lawyers at Jones Day, one of the country's largest law firms, are worried that it is advancing arguments that lack evidence and may be helping Mr. Trump and his allies undermine the integrity of American elections," read one portion.

In Arizona's case, the Trump campaign and the Republicans are alleging that Maricopa County poll workers disenfranchised many Republican voters and that that may have cost the President "up to thousands of votes" for the President. (It turned out to be a maximum of 180 votes.)

Although Spencer and Johnson are closely associated with the Republican party, Snell & Wilmer attorneys were much bigger financial supporters of the Biden campaign than the Trump reelection effort. Federal Election Commission filings show that ten attorneys contributed $1,000 or more to the challenger while only one attorney gave $1,000 to the President. (It was neither Spencer nor Johnson.)

Arizona's Law requested comment from several people at Snell & Wilmer and will update if responses warrant.

The Trump and Republican case goes before Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Daniel Kiley on Thursday. Arizona's Law and Arizona's Politics will be there to cover it.

Trump Lawsuit - Notice of Clarification and Withdrawal by arizonaspolitics on Scribd

 

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