In news that President Trump, Senator McSally and Arizona Republicans will not like to see, Fox News released its most recent poll showing that both top-of-the-ticket candidates are sliding among Arizona voters with just over one month before mail-in ballots go out.
The last time Fox News published an Arizona poll - three months ago - it caught people's attention both because Donald Trump trailed former Vice President Joe Biden 46%-42% and Martha McSally trailed then-likely Democratic challenger Mark Kelly 50%-37%. However, both Republicans have lost ground in the intervening time, with Trump now behind 49%-40% and McSally slipping to a 17-point deficit (56%-39%).
Some Republican supporters criticized the previous Fox News poll because it surveyed registered voters. Those people will be happy to hear that the new poll - closer to Election Day - filtered out "likely voters" from "registered voters". (The results were nearly identical between both sub-groups.)
Interestingly, as both parties work hard to get voters to sign up to receive early ballots, and more than 3/4 are on the Permanent Early Voting List, only 61% told pollsters that they plan to vote early (7% in person at early voting locations, and 54% by mail). 35% plan to vote on November 3 (24% in person, 11% dropping off their early ballot). Those numbers obviously do not add up to the large percentages on the PEVL (or receiving one-time-only mail-in ballots), but do jibe with Arizona's Politics' anecdotal conversations with many voters who like to feed their ballot into the machine or hand-drop it in the box.*
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