FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE CONFIRMED: More Republican & Independent Non-Regular Voters Cast Ballots For President Than Democrats

Significantly more formerly "inactive" voters who were registered as Republican or Other showed up to vote in the Presidential election than did inactive Democrats. The new voter registration numbers released by the Arizona Secretary of State today confirm what many (including Arizona's Politics) had reported anecdotally.

Although the main news from today's report (reproduced below) is that the number of registered voters continued to increase between the October cutoff to register for the General Election (more on that later in the article), the material decrease in the number of "inactive" voters also deserves attention.

Nearly 33,000 voters who had not voted in previous elections and/or had mailings returned as undeliverable came to polling places on November 8 and cast ballots (thus taking them off of the "inactive register". Nearly half of those had not registered for either of the major political parties, but the returning Republicans outnumbered their Democratic counterparts by 8.8 percentage points (9,961 and 7,075, respectively).*

 Many reporters, poll workers and poll observers - in Arizona and throughout the nation - reported observing many people who were stating - sometimes excitedly - things like they were "voting for the first time in ages", and that Donald Trump had motivated them. This new report provides some validation for that reporting and similar exit polls.

When the "inactive" to "active" voters are factored in, it  also puts a slightly different spin on the overall registered voter increase between October and January. The Secretary of State's Office reports that there are now 57,656 more active registered voters. Most of that increase is attributable to the re-activated voters. Of the balance, approximately 10,000 registered as Republicans, 8,000 as Democrats and only 6,000 as "Other".

Many of those probably registered within the 28 days prior to the election (including those Columbus Day registrants) - too late to vote on November 8 but ready for the local elections coming up in 2017 and the statewide and Congressional elections in 2018.

*It is worth noting that more Democrats than Republicans dropped off the inactive register earlier in 2016 when County Recorders sent out mailers and received responses or forwarding addresses; however, we do not know that those people ended up voting in November.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

No comments: