FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Thursday, May 24, 2012

ROMNEY'S VP: Joe Arpaio, John McCain, Jan Brewer Would Hurt Romney... In Arizona!

Arizona is currently widely thought of as a "toss-up" state in the 2012 presidential contest, and important in the electoral college math for the Republicans.  Traditionally, that might indicate that the nominee might look to that state's politicians for a possible VP running mate.  Not this year.

The Public Policy Polling ("PPP") polling information on the Obama-Romney race that came out yesterday featured some very interesting information that has not appeared to make its way into most news coverage:  Arizona's three best-known Republican office-holders would drag down presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney if they were added to his ticket.  That is, they would drag him down... in Arizona.

Romney polled a 50%-43% lead against Obama (approximately 8% undecided), with a margin of error of 4.4%.  However, if Arizona Governor Jan Brewer were added to the Romney national ticket, his Arizona lead would shrink to 48%-44%.  If he instead chose to add his former rival and 2008 presidential nominee John McCain, Romney's lead here would be almost as precarious - 48%-43% (with a few more people choosing "undecided".

But Romney's worst "favorite son" choice in this swing state would be our self-touted America's Toughest Sheriff.  Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio would make the state a virtual toss-up, with Obama only trailing by 44%-46%.

The pollster, in their automated telephone interviews of 500 Arizonans, also asked for "approval/disapproval" impressions of Brewer's and McCain's "job performance", and "favorable/unfavorable opinion".  Brewer (47%-45%) and Arpaio (46%-45%) broke even, while McCain was likely dragged down by low approvals of Congress generally and lingering bad feelings among some Republicans (36%-54%).

PPP is a Democratic-leaning pollster that - as noted earlier - uses automated telephone polling.




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