FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Tom Horne's Morning After Update and Analysis: Unlikely I'll Lose Lead From Uncounted Precincts

From his Twitter, Tom Horne links to his analysis of where the rest of the counting (of precincts, not of yet-uncounted early ballots) is headed.  Take-away quote:  "It seems not impossible but unlikely that I will lose the 373 vote in the remaining 7 precincts. Most current uncertainty would seem to come from the questioned ballots."  He does seem to acknowledge that he will not get out of required recount territory - at least not from the uncounted precincts.  I am unsure why he does not mention the many early ballots that were mailed/dropped late and have not yet been counted - those are distinct from "questioned ballots."



Noting his Maricopa and Pima County tallies-to-date, he notes that 5 precincts are uncounted in the former (where he trailed Thomas) and only 2 are uncounted in Pima (where he won a majority).

Horne's full analysis:

Friends-



Thank all of you for your support!


Here's what I have figured out this morning:


My lead is 373, just short of what is needed to avoid a recount.


There are 5 precincts out of 1142 left to report in Maricopa County. There are 2 precincts out of 417 to report in Pima County. My overall loss in Maricopa County was 48.86% to 50.56%. My overall win in Pima County was 52.97% to 46.59%. Last night when there were still 34 precincts to report in Maricopa County, and 14 in Pima, and it shrank to 5 and 2 precincts, my lead only shrank by 50 votes. It seems not impossible but unlikely that I will lose the 373 vote in the remaining 7 precincts. Most current uncertainty would seem to come from the questioned ballots.


Sincerely,
Tom

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