Thursday, May 5, 2016

Arizona Presidential Race Gets Closer With Trump As Presumptive GOP Nominee (From Cook Political Report)

Although Donald Trump handily won the (closed) Arizona GOP primary, the November general election for the Presidency got closer when he became the presumptive nominee, according to the respected Cook Political Report. Cook moved the state from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican".

Of the 13 ratings changes that Cook Political Report announced today, only one Congressional District in one state* moved towards the GOP. (Maine's 2nd CD, which is still "Likely Democratic"; Maine is one of only two states that can split its electoral votes.) Arizona is among the 12 tightest states (tossups + leans), according to Cook's new map.

Hillary Clinton would thump Trump, 304-190, according to this map. The last time Arizona cast its Electoral College votes for the Democratic nominee was after the 1996 election, when Bill Clinton won re-election.

Cook currently has Sen. John McCain as "Likely" victor in his bid for re-election. However, there has been recent speculation that the race will tighten with Donald Trump at the top of the Republicans' ticket.  McCain himself (privately) said last month that if Trump is the nominee, he (McCain) "may have the race of my life".

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