Wednesday, December 8, 2010

More, In-Depth Analysis Of Today's Oral Argument On Arizona's Employer Sanctions Law

Following up on my earlier post of the official transcript of today's oral argument before the U.S. Supreme Court on the Arizona employer sanctions law - as well as the Associated Press analysis of the arguments - here is a wonderful firsthand account from what has become the definitive news source on the Supreme Coutr:

Lyle Denniston believes it is virtually certain that Arizona's law will be upheld, either on a 5-3 or 4-4 vote .(Justice Kagan recused herself due to her previous position as Solicitor General.)  If it is a tie vote, the law is upheld because it does not overturn the 9th Circuit's decision, but it cannot be used as a "national rule".

Denniston believes that Justice Kennedy is the possible difference between precedent status and the sister-kissing decision.  He finds Justices Breyer, Ginsberg and Sotomayor  prepared to vote to reverse. (He believes the latter might need some persuading.)

Barring whatever NPR's Nina Totenberg files this afternoon, this is likely to give you the best "you are there" perspective on this morning's arguments.  At least until the court releases the audio.

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