FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Monday, November 26, 2012

VOTE COUNT WATCH, FINAL: Observations, Continued

Before the holiday (hope you had a nice one), Arizona's Politics published some observations on the final vote count.  One comment generated several e-mails and deserves a quick follow-up observation.

We tallied the total number of votes that Arizonans cast for the nine Democratic candidates and eight Republican candidates for Arizona's nine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  We noted that the GOP slate received a lot more votes, but that the Democrats go to D.C. with a 5-4 delegation edge.  We suggested that that outcome is not that surprising when recalling how upset Republicans were about the districts set up by the IRC.

One e-mailer thanked me for backing his or her claim that the GOP got screwed, and another basically told me that that was just the way the ball bounced.  The Republic ran a lengthy article on Saturday on the numbers, and gathered some interesting comments from winning Congressmen and others.

The bottom line can be looked at like this:  there are six "noncompetitive" districts.  The GOP holds a baseline 4-2 advantage, which is more than they would deserve simply based upon the registration numbers.

The three competitive districts could/would - especially, in a Republican wave election - result in a 7-2 GOP-dominated delegation.  In a Democratic wave - almost like the one this year - it can result in a 5-4 Democratic advantage.  Anything in between could also happen.

If a Democratic wave election could result in a 7-2 Democratic-dominated delegation, that would be wrong.  But, it cannot.

It would seem to Arizona's Poltics that any Republicans comlpaining about this year's result are basically admitting that they cannot and will not be able to win those three swing districts.  Even though - as the Republic points out - registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in two out of those three districts.  A self-defeatist argument that none should try to make.


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

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