Tuesday, August 2, 2016

BREAKING: If Election Was Yesterday, Arizona Likely Would Have Favored Clinton Over Trump

Arizona's 11 electoral college votes likely would go for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump if the election were held yesterday. That was the word from an Arizona-based pollster.

Of course, the election is not until November and the poll from OH Predictive Insights had a 3.1% margin of error.  Clinton received support from 45% of the 996 persons surveyed (by an automated questioner), compared to 42% for the Republican nominee.  (Libertarian Gary Johnson tallied 4% and the Green Party's presumptive nominee Jill Stein pulled 1%, while 8% were undecided.)

Pollster Mike Noble summarized the results thusly: "Donald Trump should be winning in Arizona, however the numbers indicate he likely has stifled his momentum since the GOP convention with the comments regarding the Gold Star family. The Presidential race is very close at this point in the election season. It is still surprising that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today. Arizona should be a reliable red state.”

The 3 point lead for Clinton in Arizona is actually less than the 47-42% lead OH Predictive's last poll (in June). The 538 political forecasting website graded that June poll as a "C+", and had a 3.2% polling average for Trump (before today's poll release).

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