Thursday, August 4, 2016

BREAKING: Winning Arizona - Clinton Now Has Better Chance Than Trump If Election Held Today, According To FiveThirtyEight

(UPDATE/CLARIFICATION, 11pm: FiveThirtyEight has three different forecasting models. The model now giving Clinton the edge is their "Now-cast", which forecasts "who would win an election TODAY" (emphasis added). Their "Polls-plus forecast", incorporating "polls, the economy and historical data" gives a forecast of who will win on Election Day. At this point, the latter forecast - the one that ultimately matters - still gives Trump a 69.6% chance of winning Arizona on November 8. The headline and lede have been adjusted accordingly.)

Democratic Presidential nominee has a 52.0% chance of winning Arizona's 11 electoral college votes -  IF the election were held today - according to noted prognosticating group FiveThirtyEight. Earlier today, Republican nominee Donald Trump had a razor-thin 50.1-49.9% advantage.

The Arizona numbers changed significantly yesterday after the OH Predictive Insights poll showed Clinton in the lead. The only thing that then changed since this morning were the national polls showing a growing Clinton lead, which likely influenced the "adjust for trend line" factor.

FiveThirtyEight last gave Clinton the advantage over Trump in Arizona on June 29. Trump then opened up a lead that grew until July 27 (the night before Clinton's acceptance speech).

Arizona has not cast its Electoral College votes for a Democrat since 1996, when Bill Clinton was re-elected.

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