Monday, August 29, 2016

BREAKING: MORE Arizonans "Undecided" About Their Presidential Vote; New Poll Shows Trump Closing August Gap (To 1%)

At the beginning of August, OH Predictive Insights showed Hillary Clinton leading by 3% points. August is exiting with that lead over Donald Trump shrinking to 1% point, 40%-39%.

The new poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson increasing his support from 4% to 7%, while those saying they are undecided CLIMBED (unusual for this high profile of a race this close to the election) from 8% to 13%.

On August 2, OH Predictive Insights showed Clinton with a 45%-42% lead, just inside the margin of error.  (The margin of error in the new poll is a little bit higher, +/-3.63%.) Although he did not release breakdowns by demographic group, pollster Mike Noble  notes in his news release that there is nearly no "gender gap" in his Arizona polling and that Clinton only leads Trump by 4% among female voters. (That presumably also means that Trump is only leading Clinton by a couple of percentage among men.)

Arizona is still rated as a "tossup" state by RealClearPolitics, although the FiveThirtyEight predictive models still show Trump as highly-favored to secure Arizona's 11 electoral college votes.

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