Tuesday, April 17, 2018

#AZ08 TIDBITS: April 24 Special Election, Lesko vs Tipirneni

4/25, 9:45am: If you believe that spending money on GOTV/phoning/ads/etc helps to win elections - and, I do - then we now understand what the national Republican leadership saw when they decided to devote more than $1M ($1,029,655 as of now) to the #AZ08 special election. The RNC spent $527,210, the NRCC $383,193, the Congressional Leadership Fund added at least $102,350, and the House Freedom Fund used $16,902 (mostly for fundraising fees - they were a conduit for Freedom Caucus supporters around the country to give to the Lesko campaign.

The last independent expenditure filing in the race (for the moment) belongs to the National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund. They spent $557 on Monday phone banking - presumably to their #AZ08 members.

4/24, 9:30am: In Tipirneni's final fundraising filings, she reported collecting $34,650 in contributions of greater than $1,000. $5,000 of that comes from a Teamsters Union-led group ("D.R.I.V.E."), and the rest came from individuals. 1/3 from Arizona, 2/3 from around the country.

4/23, 9:00pm: Here are the two most recent fundraising filings from the Lesko campaign*, indicating that she raised $48,100 in contributions of between $1,000 and $2,700 for the 19th through the 21st. That includes the fundraising efforts by outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan (in D.C.) and possible future Speaker and current Maj. Leader Kevin McCarthy (in P.V.)

Here are some of the noteworthy contributors: McCarthy's committee ($4,000), Pfizer PAC ($2,500), and the Susan B. Anthony List ($2,500).

*On Saturday, I had tweeted that the filings appeared to be late - they are required to be filed within 48 hours when we get this close to the election. Lesko partisans found the filings on the FEC website and chided our tweet. The FEC has multiple portals to their filings - the one we typically use claims that it "contains the most up-to-date-information." Apparently, that portal only features "processed" filings, whereas the newer portal displays both "processed" and "raw" filings. Thanks to Brian Murray and Eileen Mueller for helping improve our coverage moving forward.

4/20, 7:00am: Here are a couple of the last minute pieces hitting #AZ08 mailboxes. We have the RNC piece attacking Tipirneni as a Nancy Pelosi liberal - and noting that her employer had $6B in government contracts (she promoted cancer research for them). And, we have the Arizona Democratic Party piece attacking Lesko as a lobbyist puppet who increased taxes. Both hit the mailbox of Mike Grose., a registered Republican in the district.  (Thanks for forwarding them to us, Mike!)





4/19, 2:45pm:





4/19, 8:00am: The Planned Parenthood Federal PAC ($2,500) and former Arizona Secretary of State Terry Goddard ($1,000) stand out among Tipirneni's $20,000 in last minute contributions reported yesterday. $18,000 of that is from out of state. Here is the filing.

4/19, 7:50am: More of the 11th hour contributions from House Speaker Paul Ryan's fundraiser for Lesko are tricking in. She received $24,000 in big checks*, $14,400 of that from outside Arizona.  Among the noteworthy donors were the Utah First PAC, the National Fraternal Order of Police PAC, and the Wellcare Health Plans PAC ($1,000 each). Here is the filing.

*Per federal law, contributions of $1,000-$2,700 must be disclosed within 48 hours in the closing days of the campaign.

4/19, 7:30am: National Republican groups are smashing through the $1M mark.  Politico has learned that the Congressional Leadership Fund is spending - they use the word "dumping" - $100,000 in a "final, hyper-targeted digital and phone effort" to push Lesko over the top. That would bring CLF's total to over $200,000, and the national GOP to $1.1M.

4/18, 9:15am: #AZ08 has moved from being a "Solid R" to a "Likely R" by a well-respected political report. The Cook Political Report said today that it made the change because of the recent quarterly campaign finance reports filed by the candidates' committees. As reported 1st by Arizona's Politics, Tipirneni outraised Lesko in the past 10 weeks and had $72k more cash on hand. Polls - which have been all over the place - apparently played a lesser role in the rating change.

4/18, 7:10am: Ad spending for the (general election portion of the) #AZ08 Special Election will likely fall just short of $1.5M. According to Medium Buying, TV and radio ads are currently at $1,470,000. And, it is nearly evenly split. The Tipirneni campaign has spent $749,000. The joint effort by the Lesko campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $550,000, while the NRCC has separately thrown in $171,000.

4/17, 10:15pm: Yesterday, the Lesko campaign received a $1,000 contribution from NEW PAC. NEW PAC is chaired by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA). Nunes also chairs the House Intelligence Committee.
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4/17, 10pm: Democratic mega-donor Fred Eychaner just donated the $2,700 maximum to the Tipirneni campaign, it was disclosed tonight. Eychaner, the wealthy President of Newsweb Corp. has long been one of the largest contributors to Democratic SuperPACs and candidates. (In 2012, he was the largest.)

4/17, 4:45pmBREAKING UPDATE: National Republicans Spend Another $68k Phoning, Mailing In As Candidates Reach The Home Stretch; $958k To Date (FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS)



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