FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: CBO (Politely) Calls Out GOP - and Schweikert - On Healthcare Law Costs

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office ("CBO" has struck back at the Republicans' use of its report from last Friday, strongly suggesting that the GOP misrepresented its analysis.

Yesterday, Arizona's Politics Fact-Checked Arizona Rep. David Schweikert's (R-CD5) - and the GOP's- claims that the costs associated with the healthcare reform law that went into effect last year had just risen by $500 billion (to $1.445 trillion).  While unable to uncover where they had come up with that number - even in the CBO's budgetary analysis that was apparently the source that the Republicans had latched onto - we noted that Schweikert and fellow Republicans were studiously ignoring the larger picture of the net effect of the law on the federal budget deficit and that the repeal of the law would increase the deficit.

Late yesterday, after the Fact Check was researched and written, but before it was posted, the CBO posted on its Director's blog a clarification of the issue.  It appears that the CBO was not pleased with the selective use of its figures.  (This was probably exacerbated by the fact that the Republicans had been blasting the CBO for its analysis of last year's law and of the GOP proposed repeal.)

While not lending itself to easy quoting, the new CBO blog post does make it clear that: (1) the CBO's adjustments to the estimated cost of expanding health insurance coverage were slight and based on technical changes and updated economic inputs; (2) one cannot automatically infer a re-estimate of the entire budgetary impact of the law; (3) the CBO still is secure in its earlier conclusion that the entire law reduces the deficit through 2021 by approximately $210 billion; (4) that the Republicans' talking point ONLY comes from the "gross effect" of the insurance coverage provisions and blurs different time periods (last year's estimate covered 2010-19 and the new one 2012-21); and (5) that the CBO will continue to make these types of adjustments, and the figures will "probably change again in the future for all of those same reasons."

While adding the caveats that the GOP should have included - that the CBO has not re-estimated the entire budgetary impact - it is reasonable to infer from the CBO's report in February on the estimated total deficit reduction effect of the 2010 healthcare reform law ($210 billion), and the 8.5% increase between February and last week in the estimated net effect of the insurance coverage provisions ($89 billion), (and assuming that the other provisions' estimated effects have not changed since last month) that the estimated total deficit reduction effect of the 2010 healthcare reform law is presently estimated at $121 billion between 2012-2021.  On the other hand, for that same period, repeal of the 2010 healthcare reform law is presently estimated to increase the federal deficit by approximately $121 billion between 2012-2021.

One further addition  to yesterday's Fact Check: we noted that Schweikert claimed that the "job-killing" healthcare reform law added $670 billion dollars in taxes.  Here is a Politifact analysis breaking down the amounts of taxes in the law - they could not come up with a legitimate figure (from the CBO or the Joint Committee on Taxation) for the next ten years (through 2019) of more than $525 billion.

With the new information from the CBO - and, unless and until we are presented with a factual defense of the GOP's claims - we are giving Schweikert and the GOP a Fact Checked grade of "F" for the false use of numbers. 


We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: Legislative Candidate Continues To Ignore Calls To Remove False Info From Website

One of the things that bothers me even as Fact Checking has - thankfully - become more prevalent over the past few years is when campaigns/candidates IGNORE the fact checkers publicly calling them out on their falsehoods or misrepresentations. If anything, it got worse in the last election cycle and the trend is showing signs of continuing.



So, Arizona's Politics is going to try to do its part to continue holding false-tellers' feet to the fire. We will try to follow-up on the most egregious misrepresentations to see if and how it has been remedied. If you have any suggestions for this series, please comment below or e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.


On September 4, the Arizona Republic did a "Fact Check" piece, finding that legislative candidate Jeff Dial (Repub., LD20) had posted FALSE information on his website. On September 15, Arizona's Politics did a "Fact Check Follow-Up," noting that even 11 days after the Republic's one-star, false rating, Mr. Dial had not corrected the false language (while praising him for the positive approach the rest of his issues statements took).  No response.

In the unlikely event that Mr. Dial did not learn of the Republic's verdict, Arizona's Politics left multiple voice and e-mail messages for him. We asked him to either respond or to let us know when the website was made accurate, so that we could inform our readers and the general public. Those messages have gone unanswered.  On September 27, another follow-up was posted and messages left.

We regretfully report that - as of 8:00a.m., Wed. October 20 - Mr. Dial has STILL not corrected the website.
However, until we hear from Mr. Dial (please e-mail/phone/Tweet/snail mail/whatever), we have to award him another "F" for "Failing to correct". This brings his report card to FOUR "F's" in a row.

FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: AG Candidate Rotellini Continues To Misuse Endorsements

UPDATE (9/30): Within 5 hours of e-mailing a link to this post to the Rotellini campaign, both the website's "Supporters" page and the Facebook page were scrubbed to eliminate the two primary-only endorsements.  More details: http://bit.ly/beJwsf


One of the things that bothers me even as Fact Checking has - thankfully - become more prevalent over the past few years is when campaigns/candidates IGNORE the fact checkers publicly calling them out on their falsehoods or misrepresentations. If anything, it got worse in the last election cycle and the trend is showing signs of continuing.


So, Arizona's Politics is going to try to do its part to continue holding false-tellers' feet to the fire. We will try to follow-up on the most egregious misrepresentations to see if and how they have been remedied. If you have any suggestions for this series, please comment below or e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.

Two weeks ago, Arizona's Politics posted a Fact Check on AG candidate Felecia Rotellini's active mis-use of an endorsement by the Arizona Republic.  The Republic endorsed her AND Tom Horne in the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.  The Rotellini campaign used the Republic endorsement in a post-primary e-mail touting her as the "Community's Choice For Arizona".  Her website's endorsement page also noted that she was endorsed by the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce - even though that, too, was for the primary only.  She received a grade of "F" for the false and misleading active mis-use of the primary-only endorsement of the state's largest newspaper.

It was time to follow-up on the subject.  Lo and behold, the endorsements page* does still list the Tucson Chamber's endorsement - interviews with the Chamber for a general election endorsement were scheduled for last week and no general election endorsement has been made.  But, worse than that, the Rotellini Facebook page is actively touting the Republic's endorsement. Her "Donate" page comes up as the default, and boasts "Along with the Professional Firefighters of Arizona, Felecia has over 40 endorsements including the Arizona Republic...."

Another "F" grade, for failing to remove the misleading endorsements.

As is our practice, Arizona's Politics will contact the Rotellini campaign and request that they correct all campaign materials which contain primary-only endorsements.  We will be happy to publish information indicating that the Facebook page and the website have been cleaned up.





*On September 15, the "supporters" page was NOT linked on the home page of the site - though it was linked in the e-mail at issue; on September 29, the "supporters" tab is front-and-center on the home page.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: Candidate Jeff Dial Continues To Ignore Republic's, AZ's Politics' Fact Checks

One of the things that bothers me even as Fact Checking has - thankfully - become more prevalent over the past few years is when campaigns/candidates IGNORE the fact checkers publicly calling them out on their falsehoods or misrepresentations. If anything, it got worse in the last election cycle and the trend is showing signs of continuing.



So, Arizona's Politics is going to try to do its part to continue holding false-tellers' feet to the fire. We will try to follow-up on the most egregious misrepresentations to see if and how it has been remedied. If you have any suggestions for this series, please comment below or e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.

On September 4, the Arizona Republic did a "Fact Check" piece, finding that legislative candidate Jeff Dial (Repub., LD20) had posted FALSE information on his website.  On September 15, Arizona's Politics did a "Fact Check Follow-Up," noting that even 11 days after the Republic's one-star, false rating, Mr. Dial
had not corrected the false language (while praising him for the positive approach the rest of his issues statements took).

In the unlikely event that Mr. Dial did not learn of the Republic's verdict, Arizona's Politics has left multiple voice and e-mail messages.  We asked him to either respond or to let us know when the website was made accurate, so that we could inform our readers and the general public.  Those messages have gone unanswered.

As of 6:00 p.m., September 27, Mr. Dial has not corrected his website.  At this point, it may be safe to assume that he either still believes in the accuracy of the unsupported "survey" from which he lifted the claim, or he just does not care whether his primary tool for communicating with potential voters is accurate or not. Arizona's Politics would like to think that, somehow, Mr. Dial has not heard about the Republic's article and did not receive my e-mails or voice messages.

However, until we hear from Mr. Dial (please e-mail/phone/Tweet/snail mail/whatever), we have to award him another "F" for "Failing to correct".  This brings his report card to three "F's" in a row.





We welcome your comments about this post. Please post below, or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.

FACT CHECK FOLLOW-UP: Legislative Candidate Doesn't Pull False Claim

One of the things that bothers me even as Fact Checking has - thankfully - become more prevalent over the past few years is when campaigns/candidates IGNORE the fact checkers publicly calling them out on their falsehoods or misrepresentations.  If anything, it got worse in the last election cycle and the trend is showing signs of continuing.

So, Arizona's Politics is going to try to do its part to continue holding false-tellers' feet to the fire.  We will try to follow-up on the most egregious misrepresentations to see if and how it has been remedied.  If you have any suggestions for this series, please comment below or e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.


Eleven days ago, the Arizona Republic gave a one-star, "false" rating to State Legislative candidate Jeff Dial.  Dial is running on a Republican slate for Legislative District 20.  His website has seven pages devoted to detailing where Dial stands on various issues (immigration, education, economy, taxes, crime, family, Second Amendment).  To his credit, six of those pages expressed his views in a positive manner, not once attacking "liberals" or his Democratic opponent.

However, on the crime page, his views are expressed in a negative form.  As the Republic's Fact Check notes, he attacks... falsely.  The quote that the Republic focused on:  "Some liberal Arizona legislators have recently offered reducing sentence times and prison stays for violent criminals just to help balance the state budget. Jeff Dial strongly opposes such liberal and dangerous practices."  It is unclear whether Dial was trying to imply that his Democratic opponent (Rae Waters) was one of those legislators.

The Republic explains that it was actually Republican Cecil Ash who was "pushing to examine this option," that noone advocated for reducing sentences for "violent criminals", and that a Democratic party spokesperson says no Democratic lawmakers have offered the idea.  Dial told the Republic that he lifted the statement from a GOP voter survey question which had no supporting documentation.

He received a one-star "false" rating from the Arizona Republic.

The false language is still on the website - without explanation or justification - ten days later.

CONCLUSION:  Dial receives a second "F" to go with the Republic's rating.  

And, I guess a special "F" shout out has to go to whoever put together that false and misleading "voter survey" for the Republicans; such combo "push poll"/solicitation direct mail is common, and this shows that even some candidates can be led into promoting the misrepresentations or falsehoods.

As the late President Reagan might have told him: "Mr. Dial, tear down this false web page."

____

UPDATE (9/27): Arizona's Politics has left both detailed voice mail and e-mail messages for Mr. Dial, to (re-)alert him to the initial Arizona Republic Fact Check and our follow-up.  At this moment, the false language is still in place.



We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something on your mind that is unrelated to this post, please send an e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com. Thanks.