Arizona Poll Numbers: Romney Ahead Of Obama By Four, Giffords Seven Ahead Of Flake; Bad News For Sarah Palin, J.D. Hayworth

New poll numbers show Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-CD8) ahead of fellow Rep. Jeff Flake (R-CD6) by 48%-41% for the soon-to-be-vacated Senate seat, and that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would inch out President Barack Obama for Arizona's electoral votes.  Public Policy Polling ("PPP") - an organization hired mainly by Democrats but which has been one of the most accurate and unbiased pollsters - released the numbers, which also contained bad news for Republicans Sarah Palin and J.D. Hayworth and Democrat Phil Gordon.

For the Senate seat, the automated voice response poll showed Giffords leading all possible Republican challengers.  If she is unwilling or unable to run for the office being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl, then Flake and former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) are the next strongest candidates.  Head to head, they are tied at 45% each.

The other candidates tested were Democrats (Phoenix Mayor) Phil Brown and (Rep.) Ed Pastor, and Republicans (Former AK Gov. and VP candidate) Sarah Palin and (Former Rep.) J.D. Hayworth.  Palin and Hayworth both trailed any Democrat they were matched up against, and showed high favorable/unfavorable marks (32-62 and 21-56, respectively).

On the Presidential side, Barack Obama has made up several points in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and has lengthened a lead against Palin.  Obama also handily leads celebrity Donald Trump.  The backbone for Obama's gains appear to be in picking up favor among independent voters.  His favorable/unfavorable ratings among independents in Arizona is now 49-45, and he leads Romney by 17 percentage points among them - a big change from a poll in January, when they were tied.  However, Romney still leads 48-44%, just outside the poll's margin of error.

The pollsters surveyed 623 Arizonans, had a 3.9% margin of error, and did not try to limit its automated poll to registered or likely voters.  Conventional wisdom is that such polls are more likely to lean towards Democratic candidates.  The poll was not paid for by any candidate or political organization. 


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Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva Endorsed Rodney Glassman For State Democratic Chair, But What's Up With This???

Arizona's Politics does not generally wade into the intra-party political maneuvering - and, I am not sure why I got this e-mail - but, the latest is impossible to ignore.

An e-mail from a Democratic District Chair (Jeffrey Rich) is headlined "Another backroom deal courtesy of Don Bivens and your Arizona Democratic Party".  He attaches an e-mail chain setting forth a letter from Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-CD7) and former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard.  Grijalva has endorsed Rodney Glassman for State Party Chair and Terry Goddard has endorsed Andrei Cherny.  The State meeting is set for this coming Saturday.

Grijalva and Goddard set this post-Giffords assassination attempt era as a "moment of sorrow" and an inappropriate time to conclude a contentious battle for the Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  Therefore, they detail a proposal to keep current Chair Don Bivens (and the rest of the current officers) with the conditions that he/they will resign in one month.  A new election would then have to be noticed out.

The most interesting part is that the e-mail chain includes one from Cherny agreeing to the delay.  The other one is from Glassman to Rich, with the less-than-concurring subject line of: "FYI- Look at what Bivens and Cherney are planning next".

This would appear to indicate that Grijalva moved forward with this apparently-bipartisan proposal without Glassman's (a former aide of Grijalva's) support.  An interesting move, and one that is sure to make Saturday's meeting buzz even louder than before this attempted quieting proposal.  Rich's mass e-mail is just the first indication of that.

(Arizona's Politics is not posting the e-mail chain at this time because we do not yet have confirmation that the Grijalva-Goddard letter has been sent, and most of the other e-mails were supposed to be private until Rich sent them out.)




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WATCH: Terry Goddard's Election Day Ad; How Feds Can Learn

Here is the positive ad that Goddard has been running - and is running today.  It focuses on what he has done as Attorney General to fight illegal immigration.

WATCH: Day Before Election, Goddard "Mad As Hell"

Not sure if this is web-only or up on the air.  Nevertheless, we are posting it here because it is fascinating to see Democratic gubernatorial nominee (and current AG) Terry Goddard "mad as hell" on the day before the election. (If Gov. Jan Brewer is "mad as hell" after the oral arguments on SB1070 this a.m., we will post those, as well!)

FOLLOWING MONEY FOLLOW-UP: Horne Fails In Suit Against Natl Democratic Group; However, AG Goddard Must Now Decide What To Do With The Group That He Belongs To

The New Times has a complete update on the attack ads which Arizona's Politics has reported on extensively.  The ads attack GOP AG nominee Tom Horne.  The ads are apparently illegal because the group airing the ad - listed as the Committee for Justice and Fairness ("CFJF") - is not registered with Arizona to conduct an independent expenditure campaign in a statewide race - and has not filed notices of the expenditures.  Further, the CFJF is a front group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association, placing both current (Democratic) AG Terry Goddard and would-be AG Felecia Rotellini in difficult positions.

The alleged violations have now moved from the Secretary of State's Office to the Attorney General's Office.  Pursuant to Arizona law, the AG's office now has the discretion to send the CFJF/DAGA a notice to comply within 20 days.  Of course, the AG has a conflict-of-interest and should likely (immediately) transfer it to an independent prosecutor.


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NO COMMENT: Arizona Governor Refuses To Answer Question On Radio - Did You Have A Biopsy?; Brewer Will Not Be Turned Into A Shell

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer was asked on live radio whether she had had a biopsy taken last month.  She refused to answer.

She wrapped up her interview on KJZZ's Here and Now program by saying that she fears being turned into "a shell" if layers of her private life are peeled away.

The audio of the approximately 17-minute interview will be posted on KJZZ's (91.5FM and around the state on translators) website later today, where it will join similar interviews with Democratic nominee Terry Goddard (last month) and Libertarian Barry Hess (today, immediately following Brewer).  Brewer gave long answers to several questions asked by host Steve Goldstein, who was only able to get one listener's question in before the interview ended.

That caller expressed dismay at how the governor and her advisors had handled the questions surrounding her health.  He asked her if she had had a biopsy and whether she was okay.  Brewer recapped her previous statements about feeling fine and said she would not run for governor if she was not feeling fine. Goldstein then asked her about the line between public and private information, and Brewer bemoaned the efforts to peel away private layers.  (She also did not address the caller's apparent reference to her advisor Chuck Coughlin's initial response raising rumors of Goddard's sexual orientation 20 years ago.)


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BEYOND HYPER-PARTISANSHIP: Two Well-Known Republicans Form Committee Supporting Goddard For Governor

One of the things that ArizonasPolitics.com intends to highlight during the last few weeks of the campaign is efforts to get beyond hyper-partisanship. We believe that most Arizonans are tired of every issue being framed in an Us vs. Them, Republican vs. Democrat, black vs. white partisan way.


The Terry Goddard campaign announced the formation of "Republicans for Governor" committee this afternoon.  Statements from committee co-chairs Paul Charlton - former U.S. Attorney for Arizona - and Sam Campana - former mayor of Scottsdale - were included in the news release.  More GOP'ers are invited to climb aboard.

Charlton's quote: “While I was the US Attorney, I had a first hand look at Terry’s work as an Attorney General for a number of years. Terry is a smart and hard working prosecutor who successfully pursued drug cartels, and attacked illegal immigration by going after the ringleaders and their money. As a Republican, I want a Governor who will use that same good judgment and leadership to aggressively take on our State’s budget problems. I’ve always known Terry to do what is right as AG. I want to see him do the same as Governor.


Campana's quote: “I have been a Republican for a long time, but I also believe in choosing the best person for the job at hand. Jan Brewer has squandered her opportunity to take solid action. Terry Goddard has the intellect and the expertise to bring new investment to our state, encourage entrepreneurs to achieve success, and put the people of Arizona back to work.”


Here is the entire news release.





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WATCH: Goddard Challenges Brewer To Fire Coughlin Over Goddard-Is-Gay Rumor-Mongering

Gov. Jan Brewer commended herself for telling her political adviser Chuck Coughlin to "move on" and for her ability to stay "above the fray."  Opponent Terry Goddard is not settling for that and challenged Brewer to fire Coughlin, calling him a "despicable human being."

The exchange came during yesterday's editorial board meeting at the Arizona Star.  Video has been released, and here is a package (embedded below) airing on Channel 3 tonight.  Arizona's Politics previously posted about Coughlin's sleazy effort to inject 20-year old rumors about Goddard's sexual preference, and today's somewhat subtle e-mail from the Goddard campaign highlighting his wife and son.

A Star reporter asked Brewer if she condemned Coughlin's actions.  That is when she noted that she "thought that it was totally irrelevant and absolutely ridiculous and move on."  Later, she patted herself on the back: "I will commend myself by saying that I have been above the fray."

Goddard was not commending Brewer, however.  With Libertarian candidate Barry Hess sitting in between the Republican and the Democrat, Goddard said: "Chuck Coughlin is a despicable human being, and I think that anybody who has the kind of leadership style she just described to you (about herself) should not be tolerating somebody (like Coughlin) as her top person."

Later, Goddard spoke directly to Brewer: "Are you going to fire Chuck Coughlin?"  At the word "fire", Brewer quickly got up to leave.  Goddard repeated "Are you, Governor," and Brewer turned and said "Terry, your hands are not clean and you don't want to go there with me."

Goddard fired back, "Nobody working for me in my campaign - they would be gone in 30 seconds if they tried something like Chuck Coughlin just tried."  Brewer shook others' hands, made her way back toward Hess and Goddard, and said "Want to shake my hand?"  To which Goddard made one last remark "As a person, yes.  But, you've got to get rid of Chuck."

Methinks this issue is not going to go away as quickly as it previously seemed it would.

 


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Brewer's Veteran Political Consultant Coughlin Gets A Subtlety Lesson From Goddard Campaign

I did not get a chance yestereday to follow up on the oh-not-so-subtle attempt by Gov. Brewer political consultant Chuck Coughlin's to raise ancient Goddard-is-gay rumors, and his subsequent non-apology apology.  By the time I would have had a chance to post about the "apology", Montini, the New Times, and just about everyone else had already well-expressed my initial reaction.

But, I got a good belly laugh a few minutes ago when an e-mail* hit my inbox (info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com) from the Goddard campaign.  It is from Terry's wife, Monica, and she reference's their son.  She makes ZERO mention of the rumor-mongering, but it can be no accident that the message went out when it did, and with a nice family photo to boot!  Now, that's subtle!

Of course, Coughlin is not necessarily known for his subtlety and may not have wanted to try to be subtle this week.  And, of course, perhaps the Goddard campaign could pick up some lessons in NON-subtlety!

* Body of e-mail with subject line "A message from Monica Goddard":

Kevin and I are so proud of the work Terry has done as your Attorney General. Just this week, Terry announced that Arizona Attorney General's Office has joined a multi-state home foreclosure investigation with 49 other states who are now joining him in this effort. This is just one example of the commitment, leadership and energy I know Terry will bring to the Governor's office. We need your continued help to get the word out to friends who still might be undecided. Our website is a great place to get details on Terry's plans to get Arizona working again with his emergency job recovery plan, a plan to improve education, help women and children and protect our resources: www.terrygoddard.com


November 2nd will determine Arizona's future-your family's and mine. We deserve better than the partisan bickering and lack of vision that we have been handed by Jan Brewer. You can make a difference in this election. Tell 10 friends, pass this on, sign up some more friends on our web site and call your local Goddard for Governor office to join us any time for phone banks. Thank you. Our family is very grateful for your support.
-Monica Goddard
P.S. For those of you who have received your early ballot, don't forget to vote and mail it in!

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Brewer Campaign Getting Hot and Sweaty? Starts Re-raising Ancient "Goddard Is Gay" Rumors, Posts 20-Year Old AZScam Transcript

Maybe the Rocky Mountain Poll showing incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer under 50% (38% among all voters) is more worrisome than the Brewer campaign is letting on.  How else to explain trying to re-raise old "Goddard is gay" rumors?

Dennis Welch at the Arizona Guardian has posted a story (paid subscription required) noting that top Brewer political adviser Chuck Coughlin claimed that reporters should ask Democratic nominee Terry Goddard if he is gay if they are going to ask Brewer for her health records. 

After the story went up, Coughlin's political consulting firm posted and tweeted links trying to justify bringing that whisper campaign into the public arena through the back door.  They claim that it is justified because it shows that it is as irrelevant as the rumors that Governor Brewer has health issues that could effect her ability to serve out her term.

This is how Coughlin/Higher Ground points out the "lack of relevance".  Here is the Tweet: (@azhighground
HighGround, Inc.): The latest Brewer rumormongering is about as relevant as this 20 year old AZSCAM transcript."  That Tweet links to this post on Higher Ground's blog, posted earlier this hour (notwithstanding East Coast time showing):

The latest rumormongering about Governor Brewer is about as relevant as this 20 year old AZSCAM transcript. Questions are raised and the media pursuit legitimizes a topic no matter how irrelevant. In no way is anyone suggesting that there is a problem with being gay, but it has a common lack of relevance to this race for Governor as the unfounded rumors being perpetuated by Goddard and his democrat operatives.


It may not be sexy for Team Goddard to talk about running a state during a campaign – something the Governor has been excelling at since January of 2009. Terry Goddard has tried three times to be Governor and has failed. This time will be no different.

Wow! Besides getting in the catty "three times" comment (whoa, shades of late Gov. Mecham), they manage to send us to a 20-year old transcript of two anonymous guys speculating on Goddard's sexual preference.  Without context.

Limp protestations aside, what Higher Ground has done in trotting out - on behalf of their client, the Governor - is far different from what two persons not working for the Goddard campaign have done regarding the health rumors.

EDIT: Timeline on this:
1) John Dougherty brings up Brewer health rumor on his Facebook page.
2) Francine Hardaway posts on Huffington Post about it.
3) Brewer campaign denies health rumor.
4) Coughlin brings in gay rumor to Guardian.
5) Higher Ground posts the AZScam transcript.


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