Wednesday, September 2, 2020

BREAKING: Fox News Poll Shows McSally Headed In Wrong Direction, Now Trails By 17 Percentage Points; Trump Also Sliding (READ Poll)

In news that President Trump, Senator McSally and Arizona Republicans will not like to see, Fox News released its most recent poll showing that both top-of-the-ticket candidates are sliding among Arizona voters with just over one month before mail-in ballots go out.

The last time Fox News published an Arizona poll - three months ago - it caught people's attention both because Donald Trump trailed former Vice President Joe Biden 46%-42% and Martha McSally trailed then-likely Democratic challenger Mark Kelly 50%-37%. However, both Republicans have lost ground in the intervening time, with Trump now behind 49%-40% and McSally slipping to a 17-point deficit (56%-39%).

Some Republican supporters criticized the previous Fox News poll because it surveyed registered voters. Those people will be happy to hear that the new poll - closer to Election Day - filtered out "likely voters" from "registered voters". (The results were nearly identical between both sub-groups.)

Interestingly, as both parties work hard to get voters to sign up to receive early ballots, and more than 3/4 are on the Permanent Early Voting List, only 61% told pollsters that they plan to vote early (7% in person at early voting locations, and 54% by mail). 35% plan to vote on November 3 (24% in person, 11% dropping off their early ballot). Those numbers obviously do not add up to the large percentages on the PEVL (or receiving one-time-only mail-in ballots), but do jibe with Arizona's Politics' anecdotal conversations with many voters who like to feed their ballot into the machine or hand-drop it in the box.*


* In Maricopa County, if you have not returned your early ballot, you can still receive a regular - not a provisional - ballot at your Vote Center. Statewide, here is the link to request an early ballot

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