Friday, September 19, 2014

GOP Ramps Up Spending While Dems Tail Off In #AZ02 - The Week In "The Great(?) Arizona Congressional War of '14" (FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS)

An interesting week in Arizona in the major spending battle between the national Congressional arms of the Democratic and Republican parties.  The GOP's NRCC  continued to ramp up its spending in the toss-up battle between Martha McSally and Rep. Ron Barber (D-CD2) while the DCCC did not make a new ad buy (while still running new ads).

In the other toss-up battle, both parties spent slightly less this week, and the DCCC has still spent more attacking challenger Andy Tobin in his bid to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-CD1).

The DCCC ("Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee") produced two new ads (below), at a total cost of $52,878.  It also purchased $390,626.87 in airtime this week, bringing its total anti-Tobin total to $1,273,009.

Attacking the incumbent, the NRCC ("National Republican Congressional Committee") bought $262,313.23 worth of spots to continue airing its 2nd baggage claim.  The NRCC's total anti-Kirkpatrick spend is now $1,202,643.

The graph (right) shows that the NRCC started spending money on this race right after the primary, while the DCCC waited until it was certain who the GOP nominee would be. Since then, the DCCC has consistently spent more each week.

In CD2, the NRCC produced a new anti-Barber ad ($21,250) (below) and purchased $186,778.45 of airtime. That brought its CD2 total to $784,339.  The DCCC spent $6,108 on production and $54,586.98 on its ad buy for the week, bringing its total to $537,550.

The graph (left) shows the strategies more clearly.  The NRCC is steadily increasing its effort; the DCCC's fall-off this week could be one or more of several factors: a timing anomaly, a dramatic surplus of confidence (unlikely), a catastrophic drop in confidence (also unlikely), the entrance into the race of other players (Americans for Responsible SolutionsHouse Majority PAC). Or, none of the above. Maybe next week will help clarify.

Remember the budgets announced earlier by the DCCC and the NRCC for these key races.
CD1: DCCC, $2.2M; NRCC, $1.95M
CD2: DCCC, $700K, NRCC, $1.0M

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