Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Jan Brewer Would Clean John McCain's Clock In 2016 GOP Senate Primary, Poll Shows

As of last week, outgoing Arizona Governor Jan Brewer would be the Tea Party's strongest candidate to primary Senator John McCain with, according to a new poll commissioned by Citizens United.  With her current 80% favorability rating, Brewer would defeat McCain 47.7%-29.0%.

The push-button poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters was taken April 11-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.  Nearly 3/4 of the respondents classified themselves as "Tea Party Republicans" (40.2%) or "Strong Republicans" (33.7%).  (Both the polling memo and the toplines are re-published below the jump.)

The pollster ("the polling company") states that "this is not simply 'trouble with the Tea Party' or 'far right angst'. Senator McCain struggles at various levels with Republicans across the ideological spectrum."  However, more "Strong Republicans" actually answered that they would re-elect McCain (48.5%-43.1%).  "Tea Party Republicans" would throw him out, 83.8%-10.8%.

Brewer ran slightly better in the head-to-head matchup than did Rep. Matt Salmon (R-CD5) (48.2%-30.3%).  Rep. David Schweikert (R-CD6) was the third possible opponent tested - he still defeated McCain, 40.1%-33.9%.

Of course, Brewer is not running for re-election this year.  McCain has hinted that he might run for a 6th 6-year term in the Senate; he would turn 80 right around the time of what would likely be a hotly-contested GOP primary.

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